A Delicate Balance

Many Americans feel that restrictions imposed to lessen the spread of the Coronavirus Pandemic violate their Constitutional rights.  There have been demonstrations, some even with weapons, and the political right is not reluctant to take up this issue.  The President has strongly chastised Governors who favor such restrictions.

This is despite medical (not political) authorities with established expertise having determined that the best way to fight the virus, which has killed over 100,000 Americans thus far, is to limit its “person to person” spreading by restricting contact between people.  This has resulted in “social distancing” guidelines, masks and closure of businesses, schools and activities which bring people close together and encouraging people to “stay at home.”

Mary Sanchez

In Mary Sanchez’ May 19 Kansas City Star column, she made the following comment which represents, tragically, what many who are in favor of loosening restrictions believe:

“Bear in mind that ample studies and evidence show most people believe that staying at home or limiting their interactions with others is the right course of action, even as they are hyper aware of their own plummeting savings and inability to pay bills. But their voices are lost among the shrill.  Here’s a snippet from one conspiracy pusher that promotes under the tagline We Are NOT In This Together: “The power-grabbing politicians who used the phony Covid plague as an excuse to destroy our jobs, close our businesses, rob us of our freedom, and wreck our economy knew exactly what they were doing…And they did it intentionally.”

That’s the chorus pressing people to believe that it’s not COVID-19 that is causing cataclysmic stock market plunges, businesses to post closed forever signs and unemployment figures so dire that discussions of a depression are not out of line. They blame social distancing and municipal orders to stay-at-home for the economic fallout of the coronavirus; rather than the virus itself.

It’s a dangerous switch-up.

The very nature of the virus mocks such views. We are in this together whether those who like to shout about tyranny and government overreach like it or not.”

In a setting where the numbers of actual cases is unclear (see my blog posting of May 22), in which we have to accept these numbers as potentially representing and including those capable of spreading the virus, these restrictive guidelines have significantly affected business and social activities.  Businesses are failing, employees are losing jobs, and economic activity is grinding to a halt.  Education has been disrupted.  Wall Street is ‘kaput.’

The wealthy always manage to survive, but the greatest effect of this is on individuals who have lost their income and risk losing the ability to pay mortgages, rent and even put food on the table.  Existing unemployment benefit laws, varying from State to State, are proving inadequate to relieve this problem.  Improving them with more Federal aid is tied up with the traditional differences in opinion about this between Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

Up to a point, it is to their credit that most Americans have put up with this situation.  As its economic effect worsens, people cooped up at home begin to realize that these restrictions have taken away their individual freedoms.  This is particularly noticeable in States where the virus has not yet struck with full fury, and in States where restrictions have already been partially reduced.  Unquestionably, the restrictions cannot be made permanent, but early lifting of them can result in an increase in the number of cases and deaths.  The American people, it appears to me, want some restrictions removed or modified, and are behaving as if that is already happening.  This position is not discouraged by the position of the President, who has minimized the threat of the Pandemic all along and encourages removal of restrictions.  This results in the appearance of the disease actually being stopped, which is not the case.  The numbers do not support this position but they are being ignored in some States where the people want to go back to work and resume normal activities, despite them.

A large number of deaths from Covid19 have been among nursing home residents and senior citizens whom believers in lifting restrictions feel would have died anyway from other causes.  Also, because the disease’s spread has been disproportionately larger among older Afro-Americans and those living in less than optimal economic situations (poverty, not speaking English, absence of any income), those seeking the lifting of restrictions see the problem as “someone else’s,” not theirs.  Look at the TV pictures of those on newly opened beaches or in sidewalk cafes for example, where some restrictions have been lifted, even though the statistics to justify such action do not really exist.  See who are sitting there sipping their drinks or soaking up the sun.

Okay.  That’s the muddled picture right now.  As I see it, the weight of those Americans who want their full Constitutional rights restored and the restrictions to lessen the disease’s spread relaxed, cannot be denied.  Like it or not, regardless of the medical facts, restrictions will be lessened State by State in order to restore some “individual” rights, give the economy a chance to improve and support an illusion of normalcy.  That is happening and going to continue to happen.  The price of this will be a greater spread of the virus than would be the case if the restrictions were maintained.  There will be more deaths, and that is the way it is going to be. 

The next decade will have to include a delicate balancing of how many more deaths such “opening up” of society and the economy causes and the success of returning “Constitutional Rights” to individuals.  This ought to be done on a Federal level, but unfortunately, it is being done State by State, making it an administrative mess.  A vaccine would change things somewhat but don’t count on it in the immediate future.

And remember, there is a Presidential election in November.  The position of the President is important is making this “balancing” work.   It is clear where Donald Trump stands.  His thumb is on the scale.  A Democrat President’s thumb would be on the other side of the scale, but neither side is going to have it entirely the way they want it to be.  It’s (1) the illusion of some kind of normalcy versus (2) the increased number of deaths which that would cause which will have to be balanced.  A delicate balance.

In a way, what happens is up to you on November 3.