Coronavirus (Covid 19) Commentary

Worldwide disease epidemics, known as pandemics, are dangerous.  In 1918, the Spanish Flu pandemic killed 50 million people world-wide and 675,000 in the United States.  We, and the rest of the world were woefully unprepared for it.  Because the First World War was the backdrop for that pandemic, the warring countries did not, for security purposes, release information on it, primarily because of the havoc it had wreaked on troops on both sides, who were in situations where transmittal among them was unavoidable.  Spain was not a belligerent in the First World War and was not hesitant to release information and hence, the disease became known as the “Spanish Flu.”  Remember, it killed 675,000 people in the United States.

The current coronavirus pandemic must be viewed in the light of the 1918 pandemic.  Despite early signs of its spread, much of the world, particularly the United States, was similarly unprepared for it.  That was because of a government, put into office by the votes of the ignorant and gullible, disregarded early warnings from scientists and cut the number of health emergency personnel available to deal with such problems as well as harming the structure of funding available to provide resources to deal with a pandemic.  This was in contrast with the previous administration’s better preparedness to deal with the threat of an ebola epidemic, but that is historically the difference between the programs of a budget-cutting, “trickle down” Republican administration and any Democratic administration.

The problem with ascertaining the extent of the Coronavirus’ (Covid 19) spread in the United States is our lack of knowledge of who is, or has been, infected by it.  We lack the ability at this point to have tested more than a few thousand suspected carriers, as opposed to places like South Korea, where 75,000 individuals have been tested.   We do know, from worldwide statistics, that about 2% of infections are fatal, usually among older victims with other health problems.   At least 14 people in the United States have died thus far, and using the 2% mortality figure, that suggests that about 700 people had been infected here.  The trouble is we don’t know who these 700 people are and where they are.   (This is a greater figure than that estimated by a study at the Johns Hopkins University Whiting Schoolof Engineering, which projected the figure of  coronavirus cases in the United States at 250, incuding the more than 40 people who were "repatriated" from sites in China and Japan.)  

Some of them may present sufficient symptoms to end up with their being among those few being tested, but many have only mild, if any, symptoms.  Nevertheless, they are contagious.  Conservatively, let us assume that each of these 700 carriers spreads the virus by sneezing, coughing or touching to four others, who may or may not show symptoms, but nevertheless themselves become contagious over a two-week period.  (The figure may be much higher over an assumed two week period of being contagious.)  That gives us 2800 carriers and two weeks later, using the same conservative four-fold contagion rate, 11,200 carriers.  Two weeks later that number could reach almost 50,000, and using that 2% death rate, that means about 1,000 deaths, and there is our pandemic.

These are the numbers that medical people recognize but that the Administration does not.  The President and the Vice President are continually contradicting the words of scientists.  There should be a gag put on both Trump and Pence, whose failure to strongly emphasize the seriousness of the situation, serves to worsen it.

Because of the lack of testing, and of the close contact of people in our urban areas, there certainly are carriers in many places where people come in such close contact, like places of employment, theatres, stores and of course schools.  Some schools have already been closed, when someone there is confirmed by testing as carrying the virus.  Presence of a carrier in airplanes, in shopping malls and on public transit is more difficult to monitor, but there are repeated unconfirmed rumors that carriers have been suspected and or detected in many of these kinds of locations, where those involved are constantly changing.  Because we live in a global economy, the possibility of contagion goes beyond our borders, where many Americans have social and business contacts.  There is more “whispering” about all these risks of contagion than documented evidence, however.  But ask the people in Manhattan, Los Angeles and other urban centers!

The availability of testing on a massive basis in any and all situations where it is suspected that the possibility of someone carrying the virus exists should be the nation’s highest priority.  The President did not hesitate to call the questionable situation on our Southern border a national emergency so that he might divert military funds to build his “wall.”  Such an emergency should be declared right now to enable this absolutely necessary testing for Covid 19 Coronavirus to be done.  If such an emergency is not declared, both Trump and Pence should resign.

Needless to say, in view of the government’s mishandling of this situation and lack of preparedness, anyone who ever votes Republican again should have their head examined.

JL

                                                              *   *   *   *

MSNBC's Quote of the Day:

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“The most egregious level of incompetence in an administration that I think we've witnessed ... absolute gross, amateur hour incompetence coming out of the White House.”

—Dr. Irwin Redlener, Dir. of Columbia University's National Center For Disaster Preparedness