Oscars, Thinking Aloud About the Middle East and Future Economics

The Hills are Alive With the Sound of Sickness

The winners of the Academy Award Oscars for best Leading Actor and best Leading Actress were Eddie Redmayne and Julianne Moore.  Redmayne won his for his role in “The Theory of Everything” in which he played scientist Stephen Hawking.  Moore won hers for her role in “Still Alice” in which she played Professor Alice Howland, the principal character in the novel of the same name by Lisa Genova on which the film was based. 

The two awards had one thing in common.  Both of the winners portrayed characters who were afflicted by diseases for which cures are still being sought.  Moore’s character, Alice, was developing Alzheimer’s Disease and Redmayne’s character, Stephen Hawking, was battling Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) sometimes known as Lou Gerhig’s Disease.  Both winners drew attention to these diseases in their acceptance speeches.  It would be wonderful if this results in viewers making donations to the foundations which are working toward finding cures for ALS and Alzheimer’s Disease.

The Best film of the year was “Birdman.”  Without going into the plot too deeply, it would seem that that film as well dealt with a disease, this time of a psychological rather than a physical nature, with the lead character (played by Michael Keaton) combining worlds of fantasy with schizophrenic suicidal actions.

In view of these three major awards, 2014 may go down in cinema history as the year of the “Sickness Oscars,” since all of them would not have existed were it not for ALS, Alzheimer’s Disease and the level of insanity manifested by the title character in "Birdman."   

 Lady GaGa and Julie Andrews at the Academy Awards

Movies used to be cheerful and fun to watch.   A great example would be “The Sound of Music” which was awarded the Oscar as Best film of the year fifty years ago.  In fact, this was celebrated at the Oscar ceremony by the presence of Julie Andrews, star of that film, and of Lady Gaga who reprised many of Andrews’ songs from the score.  What a contrast that was to the “Sickness Oscars” awarded in the same ceremony.  

Jack Lippman

Thinking Aloud About the Middle East

If the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) were a true state with territorial borders and government buildings and all of the infrastructure which real nations have, it would be a simple matter of its opponents going to war against it, and destroying it.  But that is not the case.

The Islamic State is a concept, based on the idea that an Islamic State or Caliphate (something ruled by a Caliph) can be formed to rule the world according to Islamic Law, as practiced by Sunni Muslims, which should replace all other kinds of laws, both religious and secular, including other kinds of Islam.   To do this, its followers take advantage of any targets of opportunity which present themselves, particularly in “failed states” incapable of governing themselves or more significantly, of defending themselves.  Examples would be Iraq, parts of Syria, Somalia, Yemen and Libya. 

Terror attacks, seizure of military hardware, kidnapping, murder, genocide, and ransom are their weapons of choice where and when they do not have the ability to field a army, as they have done in Iraq and Syria.  In areas where they have no physical foothold, such as Europe and North America, they depend on sympathizers who believe in the same concepts to carry out similar attacks on their own.  Their theories are spread via the internet, using blogs and social media such as Twitter.  Recruiting is carried on in the same manner on a world-wide basis.

This is what ISIS now controls ... shown in green


A word about religion: The Islamic State purports to be acting in the name of Islam.  That Islam, however, is Sunni Islam (based on the idea that Mohammed’s successors should come from his learned companions, usually imams) as opposed to Shi’a Islam (which is based on the idea that Mohammed’s successors should be chosen from his family via his cousin/son-in-law Ali).  Sunni and Shi’a Muslims have been at each others’ throats over this since the Seventh Century.   Here is the religious line up of the players in this game.

This Islamic State is Sunni Muslim.

Iraq is composed of Sunni Muslims and Shi’a Muslims, with the Army and government basically controlled by Shi’a.

Iran, which borders Iraq on the east is Shi’a and most significantly, is not an Arab nation.  Its Shi’a population is Persian.  It fears any strong Sunni country, such as Turkey or Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia is Sunni, but far more conservative religion-wise than is ISIS.

Egypt is Sunni but shuns Sunni extremism to the extent of outlawing the Muslim Brotherhood, an extremist group.

The Kurds (40,000,000) spread over Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey practice many religions but most are Sunni Muslims, and surprisingly tolerant of others.  The remainder are Shi’a or part of other sects which have survived for centuries.

Syria, which has a significant Sunni Muslim and Christian population, is ruled by the Alewite sect, which is close to the Shiites in practice, and to the consternation of its neighbors, is supported by Iran.

Turkey, also not an Arab nation, is Sunni Muslim.

Politically, Sunni ISIS is at war with Iraq (which it considers to be Shi’a), Iran (which is Shi’a), Syria (which is supported by Iran), the liberal Sunni Kurds (who above all want their own independence) and those Arab nations who recognize the threat ISIS poses and are willing to fight them.  These include Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Egypt and Turkey.  Bear in mind that these states, all Sunni, do not want to find themselves on the same side as Iran and Syria, and while willing to fight against ISIS in eastern Syria and Iraq, may not be happy if their doing so enables the Iranian-supported Syrian government of Bashir al-Assad to survive.

The Islamic State views the West, including Europe and North America, as promoting ideas contrary to Islam and is at war with them as well.  

And the Islamic State is not the only villain in town.  Al Qaeda (Sunni, but not working with ISIS, who considers it too mild) is still a terrorist group to be reckoned with.  Based chiefly in Yemen, where a Shi’a Iranian-supported tribe ousted the Sunni government recently, its bomb makers are still active there.

In Africa, the Sunni al-Shabbab terrorists, based in Somalia, who torched a mall in Nairobi last year, have actually threatened the Western nations where many Somali immigrants have settled.  And Sunni Boko Haram still practices its brand of terror in northern Nigeria.  There is communication between some of these groups, particularly down at the level where social media, blogs and other internet methods serve to bring them and their sympathizers together.  Once they find that they have a common enemy, such as the West, or Israel, their differences are not so meaningful.

A few months ago, I was with those who thought “carpet bombing” would solve this problem, but it is already much more complicated and convoluted for that to work.  Right now, President Obama has suggested countering their Internet methodology with our own, and that might help a bit, but the enormity of the problem requires much more than that.  I wonder how much individual freedom and liberty in the West will have to be sacrificed in order to protect ourselves while a joint army of both Sunni and Shi’a nations battles ISIS in the field.  

That army, and not our troops, must do the job.  Of course, the Iranians would like to do it first, and their army is in existence today, and not something on a planning board.  That it why the United States must learn to work with Iran, albeit very cautiously and keeping Israel from panicking as we get closer to Tehran, in order to defeat ISIS.

And after the Islamic State is no more, what will the peace conference with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Jordan, Iran, Turkey, Syria and an independent Kurdistan look like?  And by then, will these nations recognize that Israel will also have to be at that table if a Palestinian state is to be created?  And what influence will the United States, Western Europe and Russia have on what happens there?

I don't know, and I doubt if there is anyone in Washington or London, or Jerusalem who does either.

JL

Future Economic Challenges

Let’s look into the future, when technology, robotics, artificial intelligence and more efficient ways of growing food, creating and distributing energy, and using natural resources have developed to the point where very little human labor will be necessary.

There will always be health care professionals to see to peoples’ health, there will always be lawyers to try to see that their clients are treated with justice and there will always be educators to pass on knowledge, but there will be fewer of these professionals because they will operate far more efficiently than they do today and in environments we cannot at this point even imagine.

Manufacturing and distribution of goods will require very little labor at all.  Technology will produce things even more cheaply than low-paying Third World labor does today.  Look at how many stores have been replaced with “internet” stores which, while having some employees, have fewer than brick and mortar stores do.  Look at the enterprises in your nearest shopping center.  How many are selling services (restaurants, spas, fitness, hair stylists, nail care) rather than manufactured products, whose distribution has migrated to the Internet.  A century and a half ago almost half of all Americans were farmers, raising the food we ate.  Now, agriculture is a scientifically run business with giant corporations producing our food and the small farmer is history.  Engineers will have engineered their way out of jobs.  More and more buildings are being designed by fewer and fewer architects. 

But people will need to have money to purchase the things they need and want, and most will no longer be in a position of expecting that money to come from the compensation they receive from their employer.  Their work week will be very short and one’s working years will be far less than they are today.  Retirement will come very early and even during working years, there will be a lot of leisure time.

Some will point out that these “problems” will in themselves create jobs in the retirement planning field, in health care and in the hospitality industry, which will endeavor to fill that leisure time.  But these areas will not be immune to the efficiencies which will decrease the amount of human labor necessary to do anything that has to be done.  Whatever happened to pin boys in bowling alleys?  One clerk can manage and run a 30 lane bowling alley without any assistance if the automated equipment works right, and if it doesn't, all that is needed is one technician on hand.  Even advances in technology itself will require less and less human labor in its efforts to make everything else more efficient.

Dealing with the decrease in the need for human labor and at the same time providing people with an income sufficient to purchase what they need and want requires a solution within the framework of our free enterprise capitalist system.  That is going to be the great challenge of this century.  If there is no money available to be used for consumption, there will be no need for production, and distribution, and the economy will grind to a halt.  Our existing system must be flexible enough to come up with answers to such challenges, or else some will look to the government for answers, and they do not have any that will work permanently.  Socialist economies have proven this.

JL

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