Iranian Strategic Subtlety - Friedman on Iran
Okay, so most if not all of you didn’t bother to
check out the thoughts of George Friedman, as reproduced on this blog with full
credit to him back in April of 2012. Because it looks like we are going to be negotiating with the Iranians, that elevates these postings to the "required reading" level.
Therefore, to make things easy, I am reproducing, with some underlining, the core of his thinking about relations with Iran. I would hope that President Obama, in dealing with Iran and its new President, Hossein Rouhani, is aware of these things. That’s what his advisors are there for ... I hope. Here goes, in the words of George Friedman:
Therefore, to make things easy, I am reproducing, with some underlining, the core of his thinking about relations with Iran. I would hope that President Obama, in dealing with Iran and its new President, Hossein Rouhani, is aware of these things. That’s what his advisors are there for ... I hope. Here goes, in the words of George Friedman:
Friedman
For
centuries, the dilemma facing Iran (and before it, Persia) has been
guaranteeing national survival and autonomy in the face of stronger regional
powers like Ottoman Turkey and the Russian Empire. Though always weaker than
these larger empires, Iran survived for three reasons: geography, resources
and diplomacy. Iran's size and mountainous terrain made military forays
into the country difficult and dangerous. Iran also was able to field
sufficient force to deter attacks while permitting occasional assertions of
power. At the same time, Tehran engaged in clever diplomatic efforts,
playing threatening powers off each other.
The
intrusion of European imperial powers into the region compounded Iran's
difficulties in the 19th century, along with the lodging of British power to
Iran's west in Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula following the end of World War I.
This coincided with a transformation of the global economy to an oil-based system.
Then as now, the region was a major source of global oil. Where the British
once had interests in the region, the emergence of oil as the foundation of
industrial and military power made these interests urgent. Following World War
II, the Americans and the Soviets became the outside powers with the ability
and desire to influence the region, but Teheran's basic strategic reality
persisted. Iran faced both regional and global threats that it had to deflect
or align with. And because of oil, the global power could not lose interest
while the regional powers did not have the option of losing interest.
Whether
ruled by shah or ayatollah, Iran's strategy remained the same: deter by
geography, protect with defensive forces, and engage in complex diplomatic
maneuvers. But underneath this reality, another vision of Iran's role
always lurked.
Ayatollah Ali Khameini who makes the final decisions in Iran. The vision of Iran -- a country with an essentially defensive posture -- as a regional power remained. The shah competed with Saudi Arabia over Oman and dreamed of nuclear weapons. Ahmadinejad duels with Saudi Arabia over Bahrain, and also dreams of nuclear weapons. When we look beyond the rhetoric -- something we always should do when studying foreign policy, since the rhetoric is intended to intimidate, seduce and confuse foreign powers and the public -- we see substantial continuity in Iran's strategy since World War II. Iran dreams of achieving regional dominance by breaking free from its constraints and the threats posed by nearby powers.
How much of this "region" are we willing to let Iran control in exchange for their renouncing their nuclear weapons program? While the United States will not betray Israel, will we abandon the Saudis and the Gulf States?
Since
World War II, Iran has had to deal with regional dangers like Iraq, with which
it fought a brutal war lasting nearly a decade and costing Iran about 1 million
casualties. It also has had to deal with the United States, whose power
ultimately defined patterns in the region. So long as the United States had an
overriding interest in the region, Iran had no choice but to define its
policies in terms of the United States. For the shah, that meant submitting to
the United States while subtly trying to control American actions. For the
Islamic republic, it meant opposing the United States while trying to
manipulate it into taking actions in the interests of Iran. Both acted within
the traditions of Iranian strategic subtlety.
George Friedman – Stratcor
If
this material intrigues you, I suggest you read the complete articles, accessible
by doing a search on this blog (the search box is off to the right) for “George
Friedman.” If you do, you might learn that Iran was pleased when we went after Saddam Hussein in Iraq, almost to the extent that one might suspect they provided some of the misinformation which led to our doing so, getting rid of someone Iran despised, without any Iranian blood being spilled. Also, Friedman dwells on the idea that "almost" having, or being on the road to having, nuclear weapons puts a country in a far better bargaining position than actually having those weapons ... which might be an invitation to pre-emptive retaliation and annihilation, with nothing left to negotiate about. These are the tactics Iran uses. Finally, in Friedman's book, "The Next Hundred Years," an ultimate rapprochement between Iran and the United States is predicted.
(It occurred to me as I developed the preceding blog posting that it is not inconceivable that President Obama is unaware of the subtleties about which Friedman writes. It might seem presumptuous on my part, but I provided the White House with copies, just in case.)
* * *
Amanpour and Rouhani
Jack Lippman
(It occurred to me as I developed the preceding blog posting that it is not inconceivable that President Obama is unaware of the subtleties about which Friedman writes. It might seem presumptuous on my part, but I provided the White House with copies, just in case.)
* * *
Late News: To get a ringside seat to the subtleties of Iranian diplomatic
strategy, view Christiane Amanpour's remarkable CNN interview yesterday with
President Rouhani in which he presented, in response to her questions, a willingness to negotiate in addition to a carefully worded and somewhat ambiguous reversal of the earlier Iranian positions
denying the Holocaust and threatening to wipe Israel off the map.
See and hear it all
right now at www.amanpour.com.
Amanpour and Rouhani Jack Lippman
Why Texas is Texas
The
most important things to residents of the State of Texas are the football games
and the celebratory activities surrounding them found each autumn weekend on the campuses of
the University of Texas, Texas A & M, Texas Christian
University, Texas Tech, Baylor University, Rice University, the University of Houston, Southern Methodist University, Texas State
University and at a myriad of smaller institutions of higher learning in the
Lone Star State. Little else matters to
them and that is why they elect people like Rick Perry as their Governor and
most recently, Ted Cruz as one of their two Senators. Every voter in the State deserves a fifteen yard penalty.
JL
Sid's Corner
The Lady in the Road
Sid Bolotin
She stands on the island that separates the travel lanes
Picnic cooler and satchel bag at
her feet
Long visored baseball cap for
protection from the sun
Swiping a smart phone, a cardboard
sign clasped under her arm
This must be her staked-out
location
I’ve seen her many times
Different days, various hours of
the day
Cleanly attired
Shorts and a tee
Well-worn, but clean shoes
Holding up the sign
Walking midst cars stopped at the
red light
Begging for money
Does a handler drop her off?
How can she afford the phone?
Does she use the shrubs to relieve
herself?
If I give her a buck
Will she use it for food? For
drugs?
Does her handler get a split?
Why doesn’t she get a job?
Is she somehow diminished?
Where does she live?
Her car? The streets?
A shelter?
Maybe a gated community?
Is this her career?
By choice?
By circumstance?
She was/is someone’s daughter
Might be a mother or wife
Why become a beggar?
I give her money sans answers
Kaesong Reopens
You
may recall the postings earlier this year dealing with the Kaesong Industrial
Complex in North Korea, where up to 50,000 North Korean workers receive wages
far lower than those paid in South Korea or China for comparable work, employed by South
Korean companies in the Complex's North Korean location. Of
course, this affects the pricing of South Korean products which can be imported
into the United States at an extremely low tariff rate, despite the involvement
of Kaesong’s underpaid North Korean workers in the part of their manufacturing
process which takes place in North Korea.
This gets around the United States' policy of not importing goods from
North Korea. (Use the "search" box off to the right to check out the
original postings.)
Part of Kaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea.
Part of Kaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea.
You probably are aware that Kaesong
shut down early this year at the time of increased tension between North and
South Korea. But as I predicted on this
blog, it reopened last week. South
Korean managers are starting to come back to Kaesong, just across the border,
and North Korean workers are being called back to their jobs. (The Kaesong
Industrial Complex was developed by South Korea's Hyundai manufacturing conglomerate which is involved in its
administration.) Hmmmm.
JL
Anarchists in G.O.P. Saddle?
Harry
Reid, Democratic leader in the Senate, has finally referred to the Republican
extreme right wing accurately. He used
the expression “tea party anarchists” in describing them (we used that language
in this blog several years ago). These naïve and gullible people believe that other
than providing for our armed forces, government is an unnecessary evil.
Anarchists, a century ago and now, .
Anarchists, a century ago and now, .
Today's anarchists (contrary to those of century ago who really were Marxists) believe everyone should be self-reliant and do everything on their own: put out their own fires, police their own communities (a la George Zimmerman) with their own guns, home-school their children or send them to private schools, pay for their own health care out-of-pocket, save for retirement entirely on their own, just pick up and move somewhere else when their homes are rendered unlivable by some disaster, leave care of the hungry and homeless to churches and charities, and try to make a lot of money in an economy unfettered by any regulations whatsoever.
Okay, so I am exaggerating a little. Just a little. But certainly, in their minds, there is little need for government above the community or at most the state level. Reid finally got it right and applied the Merriam-Webster definition of anarchy to them, “a situation of confusion and wild behavior in which the people in a country, group, organization, etc, are not controlled by rules or laws.”
Yep, that describes the mission of the Republican Party, as dictated by its "tea party" brethren who threaten the entire party with primary challenges if they don't back their anarchist agenda, which more than incidentally, provides great tax relief for those who need it the least.
Jack Lippman
(The usual alligator we use to separate articles on the posting is on vacation this week and his cousin is filling in. The alligator represents the "bite" we hope the blog has.)
JL
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