More About Negotiating, Ballad of the Gullible, Letter to the Post, Brooks Speaks Out and a Pathetic Woman

Poetry Time

I understand New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof recently ran a poetry contest on his blog asking readers to submit original poetry dealing with the new Presidency.  By the time that I got there, the “comments” section had been maxed out and was closed.  Nevertheless, here is the poem I would have submitted had I been able to:

The Ballad of the Gullible

Never shopped in Whole Foods

Nor tuned to NPR.  

And my idea of heaven

Is takin’ in NASCAR.

Don’t like reading print books,

Nor list’ning to a poem.

Got me a Smith and Wesson

To fortify my home.

You may think me a fool,

Raise up my glass of wine,

But buddy, please believe me,

The Donald is just fine.

These are precisely the voters which the Democratic Party failed to reach last year.  

If you wish, you can sing this!  We could have an on-line chorus!  But for the time being, you can just make up your own tune.  If you give it a try, I suggest you accent the syllables which I’ve underlined and highlighted as follows (Next to last syllable in odd numbered lines, syllable before that one in even numbered lines).  Just somewhat extend them.  But do with it as you wish:

1    Never shopped in Whole Foods

2    Nor tuned to NPR.  

3    And my idea of heaven

4    Is takin’ in NASCAR.

5    Don’t like reading print books,

6    Nor list’ning to a poem.

7    Got me a Smith and Wesson

8    To fortify my home.

9    You may think me a fool,

10  Raise up my glass of wine,

11  But buddy, please believe me,

12  The Donald is just fine.

But my poem never got on Kristof's blog.  A poem submitted by a neighbor, Joyce Golden, did and here it is for your enjoyment:

Chief: mirror mirror
Who is the fairest in the land?
Mirror: well, "I'm really not sure"
Chief: but they talk only of me,
          They made me their grand
          Prize winner!
          Their gamer-in-chief
Mirror: maybe, you need a new
          Mirror...                                      Joyce Golden 1/27/17

Are any of you out there poets, or aspire to be one?  Send your work in for inclusion in the blog!

Jack Lippman                                                           

The Strength of a Negotiator

A negotiator’s position is strengthened when the person with whom he or she is negotiating is kept in the dark about what their real goals are.  A few examples follow.

A car salesman has quoted you a price on the car you want.  You know it’s too high.  You ask for a lower price.  He tries to get you to commit to how much you really want to pay.  But of course, you don’t tell him the truth.  But he can work with any number to increase his profit, particularly if there is a trade-in, lease expiration, financing or new leasing involved.  It’s harder if the number you’re trying to agree upon is going to be a one-time cash payment.  Even then, he can work with “extras” like dealer fees, pin striping, extended warranties, useless “undercoating” and special wax finishes, all of which he can use to build up the profit.  But finally, when the two of you agree upon a price, the salesman then gets up and goes back to get the sales manager to agree with it, and that person may have his own ideas as to what the price should be.  He knows how long the dealership has had the car on its lot and how much interest it is paying on the financing the dealership uses to purchase the car.  His price might differ.  So the selling price may change again.  And if you get up, threatening to “walk,” that may affect the dealer’s price as well. That’s what negotiations are all about.

You put your house on the market.  You know exactly for how much similar houses in your neighborhood have been selling, and you’d be satisfied with that price.  You tell your agent how much you want and he or she puts it on the market for about 15% more than that price because, automatically, the buyer is going to offer less than you want for your house.  You get a “low ball” offer, but aren’t sure how much more the buyer is willing to pay.  Your agent says to wait for other offers.  They all seem to be low-balling you.  One is willing to pay the price you are willing to sell for, but is having difficulty getting a mortgage.  The agent asks you if you are willing to hold the mortgage.  You wisely say “no.”  Another buyer offers that 15% inflated price, but you find that he plans to convert your house to a “sober home” for recovering addicts.  You know your neighbors too well to do that.  But finally, you sell your house for what you hope is a fair price four months later.  Maybe.

This is the way business negotiations are carried on.  I repeat that the key to success is hiding what your real objective is.  That’s why the car salesman never tells you the exact price that the car can be sold for while still providing a fair profit for the dealer and his or her commission.  Maybe he can sell it for more than that amount.  Most of the time that is what happens.  And if it doesn’t, the salesman might not be around much longer.  And the prospective buyer of a home would be foolish to come out with the maximum price they are willing to pay; no more than the seller would announce the minimum amount that he or she is willing to take for the house.  A strong negotiator hides his true position.  Not to do so would weaken his ability to negotiate.

Well, this way of doing business has now spread to government, where it does not belong.  But since the democratic process put the “King of Negotiators” into the White House, and made the word “deal” part of the lexicon of governmental operations, we had better get used to it.  The Administration is not going to reveal its health care proposal to replace the Affordable Care Act and it is happy to let the Congress toss a whole bunch of proposals into the mix.  Keeping everyone in the dark about their real intentions regarding health care protects whatever plan they may have from attack.

And the same thing goes for trade policy, foreign policy, economics, etc., etc.  Traditionally, proposals in these areas were stated in a straightforward manner.  Everyone knew where everyone stood.  Negotiations then took place to arrive at some sort of decision, usually a compromise.  But to compromise, one must know the position of the other side. Even when a “real” position has been other than a publicly stated position, the other side usually is well aware of that through private, unpublicized discussions.   Hence, negotiations can still be based on knowledge of where both sides really stand, even though that information may not be out in the sunlight.

No more.  Now we have a “Negotiator-in-Chief” who thinks he can beat the world with his ability to “deal.”  He wrote a book, didn’t he, entitled “The Art of the Deal.”  (It was really ghost-written.)  The problem is that the rest of the world doesn’t do business that way.  Negotiations must be based on knowledge, not exaggerated bargaining positions, nuances, emotional appeal, fuzzy facts and fuzzier numbers.  And there is no bankruptcy procedure for the United States of America if a “deal,” be it domestic or international, goes sour.   This is the world, not a car dealership nor a guy trying to sell his house.  This is the problem.
JL

                                               

Letter to the Post

Here’s a letter I wrote to the Palm Beach Post (I’ll let you know if they print it) about the International Red Cross Ball at Mar-a-Lago this past Saturday evening.  There were three thousand demonstrators there, but most were kept on the western side of the Intracoastal Waterway, far from the party.  Here’s the letter:

“I was sickened by the article in Friday’s Post Accent section about the International Red Cross Ball at Mar-a-Lago.  The cause may be a good one but the description of the attendees was disgusting.  Women wearing jeweled tiaras?  Trumpeters and a Marine color guard heralding the entrance of guests?  These wealthy people, living under the illusion that they are our country’s nobility, should somehow be shipped back to the late nineteenth century European society which died in 1918, and from which the United States separated itself by fighting the Revolutionary War.  And most appalled should be the President’s populist supporters.” 

JL

                                                                   

David Brooks Addresses Fellow Republicans

In a recent New York Times column, David Brooks said that “many Republican members of Congress have made a *Faustian bargain with Donald Trump. They don’t particularly admire him as a man, they don’t trust him as an administrator, they don’t agree with him on major issues, but they respect the grip he has on their voters.” Read more of what Brooks had to say by clicking right here!

David Brooks is a very insightful writer.  But sometimes his heart dominates his brain.  Shortly after the election, he wrote that Trump would probably resign or be impeached within a year.  Three months later, I doubt that he would voice that bit of wishful thinking again.  He is counting on the Republicans who made their *Faustian bargain to eventually see the light and renounce their allegiance to the Trump Presidency. “So sooner or later,” he writes, “all will have to choose what side they are on, and live forever after with the choice.”

The devil, however, has his personal gatekeeper standing in the way of that happening the way Brooks would like it to happen.  His name is Bannon.  And for some strange, yet inexplicable reason, the President has made some sort of deal with that gatekeeper’s boss.  Click here to read the column.

*As the Germanic legend, the operas and the plays would have it, Dr. Faustus sells his soul to the Devil in exchange for, among other things, earthly power.

And while we're talking about the President, let me add that Donald Trump, while in the business world, had been accustomed to doing whatever he wanted to do, and if someone objected, they could sue him.  Well, he must learn that is not the way our government works.  Instead, we have a delicate balance between the Congressional, the Executive and the Judicial branches of our government established by the Constitution, and the President heads only one of them.  Lack of respect for the Courts on all levels, and lack of respect for elected representatives in the Congress can only serve to immobilize the Executive branch.  And watching over this, as established by the First Amendment of the Constitution, is a free press.  Attempts by any of the three branches to weaken that free press should be resisted by all Americans, regardless of their politics.  

We must all be like Peter Zenger, whose lawyers successfully argued way back in 1734 that "truth" is a defense against charges of libel.  It still is.  

JL

                                                      

Poor Kellyanne Conway  and Truth

This pathetic woman is truly deserving of our pity.  She has been depending on warped sources of information like FoxNews and the Breitbart organization for so long that she has lost the ability to distinguish truth from falsehood.  Her recent ridiculous statements about “alternate facts” having as much credibility as “facts” are not only disgraceful but an insult to the legal profession of which she supposedly is a member. 

A lawyer can construct a defense based on half (or quarter or eighth) truths and sometimes even lies, trying to assemble enough evidence to get a court to believe them, but that does not turn such evidence into facts, even though they might get a client off.  This poor woman doesn’t understand that.  And if she does, that makes her even more pathetic.  That makes her a downright liar.

Her latest comment about a non-existent “massacre” in Bowling Green, Kentucky, is the result of her having gotten too much information over the years from un-documentable right-wing sources, as have too many Americans.  It seems she no longer can distinguish truth from falsehood.  As I have stated in a prior posting, the super-salesman in the White House has the same problem because highly successful salespeople really believe what they are saying, whether it is true or not.  As ridiculous as it seems, the President should get a pass because of that.  He knows no better.  But attorney Conway should know better.  She has no place in any White House, especially one that has built-in problems of its own with truth.

And related to this problem, this morning on NPR's A-1 program (wherever you are, try to listen ... it's the replacement for the retired Diane Rehm), a member of Trump's transitional team was being interviewed.  Host Josh Johnson questioned the member's claim that the team was "non-partisan," because the gentleman was a fellow at the Heritage Foundation.  The gentleman claimed that since the Foundation had no official party affiliation, their views, which he espoused, did not make the team "partisan." 

We must be very careful with the meaning of words and what passes for "truth" in Washington today, more than ever.  (For those who were not aware of it, the Heritage Foundation promotes right-wing conservative values.)

JL

                                             

HOW TO BE ALERTED TO FUTURE BLOG POSTINGS.

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n this blog, just click on the appropriate date in the “Blog Archive” midway down the column off to the right, or scroll down until you see the “Older Posts” notation at the very bottom of this posting.  The “Search Box” in the right side of the posting also may be helpful in locating a posting topic for which you are looking.

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To send this posting to a friend, or enemy for that matter, whom you think might be interested in it, just click on the envelope with the arrow on the "Comments" line directly below, enabling you to send them an Email providing a link directly to this posting.  You might also want to let me know their Email address so that they may be alerted to future postings.

Jack Lippman 

Negotiating, Defending Trump, Jobs for the Unemployed, Short Memories, Advice for Democrats, More Hip Hop & the Movies and Strategic Retreating

                             

Pre-Conditions to Negotiations

The Israelis and the Palestinians aren’t negotiating with each other because the Israelis insist that any negotiations must recognize beforehand the permanent existence of Israel. One cannot sit across the table from someone who does not truly recognize your legitimacy! The Palestinians want that to be part of the negotiations, once underway.  So nothing gets done.  But the argument of the Israelis is totally understandable. No sane person puts their legitimacy on the line as a bargaining chip.   (See the last article on today's posting.)

Similarly, President Trump was supposed to sit down and talk with the Mexican President about immigration and trade.  But beforehand, he established that the United States “was going to build a wall.”   Mexico wanted negotiations to be free of that pre-condition.  

So, the meeting was cancelled by Mexican President Nieto. 

                        Nieto

Trump’s setting of a pre-condition to negotiations was just a way of his living up to his campaign promise and in no way similar to the Israeli pre-condition that the Palestinians accept Israel’s right to exist as a nation before sitting down.  That’s much more fundamental than Trump’s self-serving commitment to build a wall.

And of course, followers of this blog (see the posting preceding this one) knew that the cost of building the wall would be borne not by Mexico, but by Americans.  This isn’t what Donald Trump said during his campaign to win the votes of the gullible and the stupid … which he did.

JL

In Defense of the President!

Donald Trump does not lie.  He believes everything he says, regardless of whether it is true or not.  That is because he is a super salesman.  Such people use hyperbole, exaggerated statements or claims not meant to be taken literally, routinely.  To be a good salesman, one must believe their hyperbole, even their lies, to be true.  We have all met such salesmen in auto dealerships, real estate development sales rooms or even "free lunch" investment seminars.  A salesman cannot be faulted for totally believing in his or her product.   Otherwise, they fail in their job.

Hence, the homes in a shoddy real estate development facing a fetid swamp, built by unskilled labor using the cheapest construction materials available, and furnished with minimal “builders’ special” appliances become “gorgeous estate residences, featuring dramatic water views, created by master craftsmen and providing state of the art appliances custom installed by experts.”  This is what the ads say, and this is what the salesman firmly believes, and this is precisely the way Donald Trump thinks.  What he wants to believe becomes the truth. 

By the time a buyer eventually starts to question the salesman’s “truths” after something breaks down, the developer’s corporation has been dissolved, the salesman is long-gone and involved in his next project.  Such a salesman might be very successful in what he does, but that does not qualify him to be President, unless his sales skills are very, very good and he believes every single word he says to be the truth and he is able to convince everyone in the country that not only is the world flat, but that the moon is made of green cheese (and that Mexico would pay for the wall.)

JL

                                                    

Illegal Immigrant and Unemployment Problems Solved!

Okay, here’s something for the Trump administration to get cracking on!  Something more important than phony voter fraud or the head count at the Inauguration.  They must get those eleven million illegal workers out of the country as quickly as possible.  They should ignore the pleas of agricultural interests throughout the country who would be left without anyone to help harvest their crops.  They should ignore the restauranteurs and hoteliers who suddenly would have no busboys, dishwashers, kitchen helpers  nor maids to make the beds.

But fear not, the jobs which the illegals held will be quickly filled by the coal miners of Appalachia, whose mines will never reopen, but to whom Donald promised jobs and the workers of the Rust Belt who will find to their dismay that the manufacturing jobs Trump brings back to the United States now only require one worker for every ten, which was the way it used to be before robotic technology took charge of manufacturing here.  

In one fell swoop, Trump will have solved the illegal immigrant worker problem and the unemployment problem!  A huge success, making “America Great Again” and benefitting millions of West Virginians, Kentuckians, Michiganders, Pennsylvanians and Ohioans!  They will love those sunny pepper fields out near Lake Okeechobee, those dank kitchens behind our restaurants and all those dirty sheets and towels!  But they WILL have jobs!

JL

How Short Are Our Memories

I recently wrote in a posting on this blog that Breckenbridge Long and John J. McCloy, two high government officials during the presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt came close to qualifying as war criminals deserving to be on trial for war crimes at the Nuremberg Tribunals after World War Two.  

FDR was a busy man, pulling the United States out of a numbing depression and winning the Second World War, and depending to a great extent, perhaps too great an extent, on his advisers.  Long, from his post in the State Department, was instrumental in preventing Jews from fleeing Nazi Germany, by insisting that admitting them would result in German agents, masquerading as Jews, entering this country.  McCloy, from his post in the War Department was instrumental in our not bombing the rail lines taking millions to their death in Auschwitz’ gas chambers.  There was enough existing anti-Semitism in the United States for the influence of these two men to control the actions of an overburdened and increasingly ill President.  Millions died because of their actions.

Street Scenes:  Auschwitz in the Forties.  Aleppo Last Month

The malarkey coming out of the White House today also talks about how admitting immigrants  fleeing from the horrors of the Syrian Civil War might allow potential enemies of the United States into the country.   Sounds familiar?  This is despite the extreme vetting procedures the Obama administration  instituted requiring a year of investigation while interned in temporary camps near the Middle East for potential Syrian refugees.  President Trump’s restrictions on immigration ignore what happened to Jews in the Thirties and Forties, mocks the historic message of the Statue of Liberty and is simply a bit of thoughtless showmanship aimed at solidifying his anti-immigrant political base, with which many conscience-less Republicans are willing to go along.  The only person requiring additional vetting sits in the White House.

JL

 

A Recipe for the Democratic Party in Florida (and Elsewhere)

It was wonderful to see those millions of women and men demonstrating last week against the new President and the backward-looking ideas he brought along with him on Election Day.  But this was, unfortunately, more of the “identity politics” which failed to come through for Hillary Clinton at the polls.  “Together Stronger” sounded nice but ignored the realities of politics which are what makes a difference at the polls.

Congressional reapportionment, the cure for gerrymandering, rests with State Legislatures which are dominated by Republicans throughout the country.  It is no accident that the Republicans control most governorships and State legislatures.  They have worked to do that and that work shows its result in Congressional and Presidential elections.  It is time for the Democrats to start doing the same.  Identity politics may sound nice … but it doesn’t win elections.  Ask Hillary.

Here are my instructions for the Democratic Party in Florida where I have been living for the past sixteen years.  I am very serious about this.  Here, it all starts in Tallahassee. (In other States, it also starts in the State Capital too!)

Presently the 40 seat State Senate is divided 25-15 in favor of the Republicans.  Senators run for four year terms, subject to a limit of two terms.  Generally, if a switch of 5% or less of voters would change a result, I consider that seat as contestable, and possibly winnable.  Here’s the bad news.  On that basis, of the ten State Senate seats which will be contested in 2018, my research sees no opportunity for any Democratic gains.  All of them will be retained by Republicans.

Now here’s the good news.  Such is not the case in 2020, when the seats just filled in 2016 are again contested.

In three of these seats (Districts 8, 13 and 39) presently occupied by Republicans, the 2016 margin of victory was less than 5%.  Democrats should start organizing their resources right now to win these seats in 2020!  It can be done.

In District 18, a third candidate whose voters came from a Democratic base, resulted in a Republican winning with only 48.21% of the vote.  Efforts should start now to win the District 18 Senate seat in 2020.  That too can be done.

Finally, in Senate District 40, the Republican won with 50.6% of the vote.  There, a third candidate who ran on a single issue (reform of the Florida Department of Children and Families), received 8.7% of the vote.  If this third candidate’s votes split evenly between the parties, that would make that seat competitive in 2020, just within the 5% range which would make a difference.

Hence it is entirely possible that in 2020, the Florida State Senate would be evenly split, with each party having 20 seats!  But this won’t just happen.  The Democratic Party must start working toward it today. It can be done.

The prognosis for the State Assembly in Florida is not so bright.  There, the Republicans have a 79 to 41 edge.   But there are opportunities for Democratic gains in 2018, when the entire Assembly stands for election again.  I note that there are twelve seats which the G.O.P. won by less than 5% in 2016.  If the Democrats start organizing their resources with an emphasis on those 2018 races (Districts 21, 30, 36, 41, 47, 59, 63, 83, 93, 103, 105 and 115) right now they have a shot at a twelve seat reduction of the Republican edge in 2018, when there will be no Presidential election to draw Republicans to the polls.  67-53 would be a heck of a lot better than the present 79-41!  Democrats must work for it.  

Singing “Kumbaya” at massive demonstrations in Washington and elsewhere won’t get the job done.  It must be done locally.  Tip O’Neill said it.  “All politics are local.”

JL

More On Hip Hop and the Movies

An added thought to my recent comments on hip hop and rap:  While there will be Academy Awards for the wonderful acting in motion pictures like “Manchester By the Sea” and “Fences” and while “La La Land” may win the Oscar for Best Picture, in my estimation the most important film of the year is “Hidden Figures.”   Every high school student, regardless of race, should be required to see this film and discuss its implications.  That would be a good first step in counteracting the poisonous effect on them which rap and hip hop “music” has brought about.  South Floridians:  Have you listened to 103.5 FM as I suggested to find out what is corrupting our youth, hampering their education and preparing them for a jobless and purposeless life?  103.5 FM.

JL

Strategic Retreat

When it looks like your side of an issue is becoming the losing side and the other side’s solution seems to be winning, “strategic retreat” may be the best course of action.  By sitting back and letting the other guys have their way, the losers may turn out to be the eventual winners.  This, of course, is only true if you strongly hold your beliefs and are convinced that the other side’s approach has no merit and will certainly fail.

I recently suggested this approach for solving the Israeli-Palestinian problem.  My actual belief is that a one-state solution is wrong since it will ultimately result in either Israel going the “apartheid” route and no longer remaining a democracy or losing its identity as a Jewish state when the Muslim birthrate leads to a Muslim majority.  Unfortunately, proponents of a two-state solution have been stalled for years by the Palestinians’ refusal to acknowledge the permanence of the State of Israel, their dependence on terrorism and their oft-stated goal of taking over Israel, once they have their own state.

Recognizing this, I said that two-state advocates should step aside and let those advocating one state get on with building settlements on what would be Palestinian territory, keeping Palestinians as second class citizens and ultimately, encouraging them to migrate to nearby nations, relieving Israel of the problem.   If such a course were seriously followed, I believe the Palestinians would eventually come to see the light and to avoid what would be the total disappearance of their hope for a Palestinian state, finally agree to a two-state solution with full recognition of the State of Israel and replace terrorism with a peaceful side-by-side existence with Israel.  Thus, I see the two-state advocates ultimately winning by letting the advocates of one single Israeli state initially have their way.  It may take a few years to happen, but this could be the result of such a ‘strategic retreat.”

Stretching this approach to governance in the United States, I believe in an active role for government in working for the well-being of its citizens.  This involves watching over the economy to assure that there is employment available for everyone, and that solutions to the problems of to health care, education and retirement are provided.  Along with this, regulation of business and financial practices so that the wealth of the nation is not ensconced in a miniscule percentage of Americans is necessary.  Finally, I believe that rights guaranteed by the Constitution should not be diluted.

Right now, our democratically elected Congress and President believe in a reduced role for government.  Generally, to their way of thinking, the private rather than the public sector of our economy can do what government tries to do, but better. I think they will abysmally fail to accomplish this.  But by “strategically retreating,” at least temporarily, those who believe in a greater role for government will eventually have the opportunity to step in and take over once the efforts of the present administration and Congress have failed miserably, and believe me, they will.  

Sadly, the country will be hurt in the process but that pain will assure the ultimate triumph of those who believe in the role of government to act in the interest of all citizens, and not just the wealthy and businesses.  That pain might be broadly translated at the price we must pay for democracy.  And just as it will take a long time for an Israeli-Palestinian rapprochement, the forces of darkness will not succumb to the forces of light very quickly here either.

Jack Lippman

HOW TO BE ALERTED TO FUTURE BLOG POSTINGS.

Many readers of this blog are alerted by Email every time a new posting appears.  If you wish to be added to that Email list, just let me know by clicking on Riart1@aol.com and sending me an Email.  

HOW TO CONTACT ME or CONTRIBUTE MATERIAL TO JACK'S POTPOURRI. 

BY CLICKING ON THAT SAME ADDRESS, Riart1@aol.com   YOU ALSO CAN SEND ME YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS TO BE PUBLISHED IN THIS BLOG AS WELL AS YOUR COMMENTS.  (Comments can also be made by clicking on the "Post a Comment" link at the blog's end.)

MOBILE DEVICE ACCESS.

DID YOU KNOW THAT www.jackspotpourri.com IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON YOUR MOBILE DEVICES IN A MODIFIED, EASY-TO-READ, FORMAT?   

HOW TO VIEW OLDER POSTINGS.                                                

To view older postings on this blog, just click on the appropriate date in the “Blog Archive” midway down the column off to the right, or scroll down until you see the “Older Posts” notation at the very bottom of this posting.  The “Search Box” in the right side of the posting also may be helpful in locating a posting topic for which you are looking.

HOW TO FORWARD POSTINGS.

To send this posting to a friend, or enemy for that matter, whom you think might be interested in it, just click on the envelope with the arrow on the "Comments" line directly below, enabling you to send them an Email providing a link directly to this posting.  You might also want to let me know their Email address so that they may be alerted to future postings.

Jack Lippman