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Jack is a graduate of Rutgers University where he majored in history. His career in the life and health insurance industry involved medical risk selection and brokerage management. Retired in Florida for over two decades after many years in NJ and NY, he occasionally writes, paints, plays poker, participates in play readings and is catching up on Shakespeare, Melville and Joyce, etc.

Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Negotiating, Defending Trump, Jobs for the Unemployed, Short Memories, Advice for Democrats, More Hip Hop & the Movies and Strategic Retreating




                             

Pre-Conditions to Negotiations

The Israelis and the Palestinians aren’t negotiating with each other because the Israelis insist that any negotiations must recognize beforehand the permanent existence of Israel. One cannot sit across the table from someone who does not truly recognize your legitimacy! The Palestinians want that to be part of the negotiations, once underway.  So nothing gets done.  But the argument of the Israelis is totally understandable. No sane person puts their legitimacy on the line as a bargaining chip.   (See the last article on today's posting.)

Similarly, President Trump was supposed to sit down and talk with the Mexican President about immigration and trade.  But beforehand, he established that the United States “was going to build a wall.”   Mexico wanted negotiations to be free of that pre-condition.  
So, the meeting was cancelled by Mexican President Nieto. 

                        Nieto
Trump’s setting of a pre-condition to negotiations was just a way of his living up to his campaign promise and in no way similar to the Israeli pre-condition that the Palestinians accept Israel’s right to exist as a nation before sitting down.  That’s much more fundamental than Trump’s self-serving commitment to build a wall.

And of course, followers of this blog (see the posting preceding this one) knew that the cost of building the wall would be borne not by Mexico, but by Americans.  This isn’t what Donald Trump said during his campaign to win the votes of the gullible and the stupid … which he did.
JL


In Defense of the President!

Donald Trump does not lie.  He believes everything he says, regardless of whether it is true or not.  That is because he is a super salesman.  Such people use hyperbole, exaggerated statements or claims not meant to be taken literally, routinely.  To be a good salesman, one must believe their hyperbole, even their lies, to be true.  We have all met such salesmen in auto dealerships, real estate development sales rooms or even "free lunch" investment seminars.  A salesman cannot be faulted for totally believing in his or her product.   Otherwise, they fail in their job.

Hence, the homes in a shoddy real estate development facing a fetid swamp, built by unskilled labor using the cheapest construction materials available, and furnished with minimal “builders’ special” appliances become “gorgeous estate residences, featuring dramatic water views, created by master craftsmen and providing state of the art appliances custom installed by experts.”  This is what the ads say, and this is what the salesman firmly believes, and this is precisely the way Donald Trump thinks.  What he wants to believe becomes the truth. 

By the time a buyer eventually starts to question the salesman’s “truths” after something breaks down, the developer’s corporation has been dissolved, the salesman is long-gone and involved in his next project.  Such a salesman might be very successful in what he does, but that does not qualify him to be President, unless his sales skills are very, very good and he believes every single word he says to be the truth and he is able to convince everyone in the country that not only is the world flat, but that the moon is made of green cheese (and that Mexico would pay for the wall.)
JL
                                                    

Illegal Immigrant and Unemployment Problems Solved!

Okay, here’s something for the Trump administration to get cracking on!  Something more important than phony voter fraud or the head count at the Inauguration.  They must get those eleven million illegal workers out of the country as quickly as possible.  They should ignore the pleas of agricultural interests throughout the country who would be left without anyone to help harvest their crops.  They should ignore the restauranteurs and hoteliers who suddenly would have no busboys, dishwashers, kitchen helpers  nor maids to make the beds.

But fear not, the jobs which the illegals held will be quickly filled by the coal miners of Appalachia, whose mines will never reopen, but to whom Donald promised jobs and the workers of the Rust Belt who will find to their dismay that the manufacturing jobs Trump brings back to the United States now only require one worker for every ten, which was the way it used to be before robotic technology took charge of manufacturing here.  

In one fell swoop, Trump will have solved the illegal immigrant worker problem and the unemployment problem!  A huge success, making “America Great Again” and benefitting millions of West Virginians, Kentuckians, Michiganders, Pennsylvanians and Ohioans!  They will love those sunny pepper fields out near Lake Okeechobee, those dank kitchens behind our restaurants and all those dirty sheets and towels!  But they WILL have jobs!



JL



How Short Are Our Memories

I recently wrote in a posting on this blog that Breckenbridge Long and John J. McCloy, two high government officials during the presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt came close to qualifying as war criminals deserving to be on trial for war crimes at the Nuremberg Tribunals after World War Two.  

FDR was a busy man, pulling the United States out of a numbing depression and winning the Second World War, and depending to a great extent, perhaps too great an extent, on his advisers.  Long, from his post in the State Department, was instrumental in preventing Jews from fleeing Nazi Germany, by insisting that admitting them would result in German agents, masquerading as Jews, entering this country.  McCloy, from his post in the War Department was instrumental in our not bombing the rail lines taking millions to their death in Auschwitz’ gas chambers.  There was enough existing anti-Semitism in the United States for the influence of these two men to control the actions of an overburdened and increasingly ill President.  Millions died because of their actions.



Street Scenes:  Auschwitz in the Forties.  Aleppo Last Month


The malarkey coming out of the White House today also talks about how admitting immigrants  fleeing from the horrors of the Syrian Civil War might allow potential enemies of the United States into the country.   Sounds familiar?  This is despite the extreme vetting procedures the Obama administration  instituted requiring a year of investigation while interned in temporary camps near the Middle East for potential Syrian refugees.  President Trump’s restrictions on immigration ignore what happened to Jews in the Thirties and Forties, mocks the historic message of the Statue of Liberty and is simply a bit of thoughtless showmanship aimed at solidifying his anti-immigrant political base, with which many conscience-less Republicans are willing to go along.  The only person requiring additional vetting sits in the White House.
JL

 

A Recipe for the Democratic Party in Florida (and Elsewhere)

It was wonderful to see those millions of women and men demonstrating last week against the new President and the backward-looking ideas he brought along with him on Election Day.  But this was, unfortunately, more of the “identity politics” which failed to come through for Hillary Clinton at the polls.  “Together Stronger” sounded nice but ignored the realities of politics which are what makes a difference at the polls.

Congressional reapportionment, the cure for gerrymandering, rests with State Legislatures which are dominated by Republicans throughout the country.  It is no accident that the Republicans control most governorships and State legislatures.  They have worked to do that and that work shows its result in Congressional and Presidential elections.  It is time for the Democrats to start doing the same.  Identity politics may sound nice … but it doesn’t win elections.  Ask Hillary.

Here are my instructions for the Democratic Party in Florida where I have been living for the past sixteen years.  I am very serious about this.  Here, it all starts in Tallahassee. (In other States, it also starts in the State Capital too!)

Presently the 40 seat State Senate is divided 25-15 in favor of the Republicans.  Senators run for four year terms, subject to a limit of two terms.  Generally, if a switch of 5% or less of voters would change a result, I consider that seat as contestable, and possibly winnable.  Here’s the bad news.  On that basis, of the ten State Senate seats which will be contested in 2018, my research sees no opportunity for any Democratic gains.  All of them will be retained by Republicans.

Now here’s the good news.  Such is not the case in 2020, when the seats just filled in 2016 are again contested.

In three of these seats (Districts 8, 13 and 39) presently occupied by Republicans, the 2016 margin of victory was less than 5%.  Democrats should start organizing their resources right now to win these seats in 2020!  It can be done.

In District 18, a third candidate whose voters came from a Democratic base, resulted in a Republican winning with only 48.21% of the vote.  Efforts should start now to win the District 18 Senate seat in 2020.  That too can be done.

Finally, in Senate District 40, the Republican won with 50.6% of the vote.  There, a third candidate who ran on a single issue (reform of the Florida Department of Children and Families), received 8.7% of the vote.  If this third candidate’s votes split evenly between the parties, that would make that seat competitive in 2020, just within the 5% range which would make a difference.

Hence it is entirely possible that in 2020, the Florida State Senate would be evenly split, with each party having 20 seats!  But this won’t just happen.  The Democratic Party must start working toward it today. It can be done.

The prognosis for the State Assembly in Florida is not so bright.  There, the Republicans have a 79 to 41 edge.   But there are opportunities for Democratic gains in 2018, when the entire Assembly stands for election again.  I note that there are twelve seats which the G.O.P. won by less than 5% in 2016.  If the Democrats start organizing their resources with an emphasis on those 2018 races (Districts 21, 30, 36, 41, 47, 59, 63, 83, 93, 103, 105 and 115) right now they have a shot at a twelve seat reduction of the Republican edge in 2018, when there will be no Presidential election to draw Republicans to the polls.  67-53 would be a heck of a lot better than the present 79-41!  Democrats must work for it.  

Singing “Kumbaya” at massive demonstrations in Washington and elsewhere won’t get the job done.  It must be done locally.  Tip O’Neill said it.  “All politics are local.”
JL



More On Hip Hop and the Movies


An added thought to my recent comments on hip hop and rap:  While there will be Academy Awards for the wonderful acting in motion pictures like “Manchester By the Sea” and “Fences” and while “La La Land” may win the Oscar for Best Picture, in my estimation the most important film of the year is “Hidden Figures.”   Every high school student, regardless of race, should be required to see this film and discuss its implications.  That would be a good first step in counteracting the poisonous effect on them which rap and hip hop “music” has brought about.  South Floridians:  Have you listened to 103.5 FM as I suggested to find out what is corrupting our youth, hampering their education and preparing them for a jobless and purposeless life?  103.5 FM.
JL

Strategic Retreat

When it looks like your side of an issue is becoming the losing side and the other side’s solution seems to be winning, “strategic retreat” may be the best course of action.  By sitting back and letting the other guys have their way, the losers may turn out to be the eventual winners.  This, of course, is only true if you strongly hold your beliefs and are convinced that the other side’s approach has no merit and will certainly fail.

I recently suggested this approach for solving the Israeli-Palestinian problem.  My actual belief is that a one-state solution is wrong since it will ultimately result in either Israel going the “apartheid” route and no longer remaining a democracy or losing its identity as a Jewish state when the Muslim birthrate leads to a Muslim majority.  Unfortunately, proponents of a two-state solution have been stalled for years by the Palestinians’ refusal to acknowledge the permanence of the State of Israel, their dependence on terrorism and their oft-stated goal of taking over Israel, once they have their own state.

Recognizing this, I said that two-state advocates should step aside and let those advocating one state get on with building settlements on what would be Palestinian territory, keeping Palestinians as second class citizens and ultimately, encouraging them to migrate to nearby nations, relieving Israel of the problem.   If such a course were seriously followed, I believe the Palestinians would eventually come to see the light and to avoid what would be the total disappearance of their hope for a Palestinian state, finally agree to a two-state solution with full recognition of the State of Israel and replace terrorism with a peaceful side-by-side existence with Israel.  Thus, I see the two-state advocates ultimately winning by letting the advocates of one single Israeli state initially have their way.  It may take a few years to happen, but this could be the result of such a ‘strategic retreat.”

Stretching this approach to governance in the United States, I believe in an active role for government in working for the well-being of its citizens.  This involves watching over the economy to assure that there is employment available for everyone, and that solutions to the problems of to health care, education and retirement are provided.  Along with this, regulation of business and financial practices so that the wealth of the nation is not ensconced in a miniscule percentage of Americans is necessary.  Finally, I believe that rights guaranteed by the Constitution should not be diluted.

Right now, our democratically elected Congress and President believe in a reduced role for government.  Generally, to their way of thinking, the private rather than the public sector of our economy can do what government tries to do, but better. I think they will abysmally fail to accomplish this.  But by “strategically retreating,” at least temporarily, those who believe in a greater role for government will eventually have the opportunity to step in and take over once the efforts of the present administration and Congress have failed miserably, and believe me, they will.  

Sadly, the country will be hurt in the process but that pain will assure the ultimate triumph of those who believe in the role of government to act in the interest of all citizens, and not just the wealthy and businesses.  That pain might be broadly translated at the price we must pay for democracy.  And just as it will take a long time for an Israeli-Palestinian rapprochement, the forces of darkness will not succumb to the forces of light very quickly here either.
Jack Lippman



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