Inside the Head of Alexander Hamilton - The Electoral College
Got about half an hour to kill? Go back and read this blog’s posting of Wednesday, December 14, 2016. It reproduces Number 68 of the Federalist Papers and explains what the Electoral College was and is about. It was written by Alexander Hamilton. It is well worth reading and studying.
You can find it at https://jackspotpourri.blogspot.com/2016/12/number-68-of-federalist-papers.html. Simply copy and paste that link on your browser line and click “enter.” Or you can use the Blog Archive to your right (if you’re reading this on a PC or Mac) to get there, or just CLICK HERE to read it.
The Pandemic Worsens
What we are now
facing in terms of the spreading pandemic is even far worse than another 9/11
attack or another Pearl Harbor. While the number of deaths is more controllable
now, the number of those infected and spreading the virus is soaring. Hospitals
are filling up with those with serious symptoms. How should we react to that? We actually know what to do, but do we have to
wait until Biden is in the White House on January 20 for that to happen? So
long as Trump is in the White House, that seems to be the case. And even then, it will be difficult considering his supporters who won't go away.
How Trump’s
Support Came to Be, Described 52 Years Ago
During
Richard Nixon’s 1968 presidential campaign, a manuscript of Kevin Phillips’
book ‘The Emerging Republican Majority,’ offered a playbook for how white
voters could form a winning national coalition in the post-civil rights era.
Phillips called America “the melting pot that never melted” and explained that
“all you’ve got to do with American politics is work out who hates whom and
you’ve got it.” Phillips advised Nixon that the Republican party could win
without African American votes by painting the Democrats as the “black party.”
Phillips predicted “a new American revolution coming out of the south and west”
because of fears and objections raised by the civil rights movement’s victories.
Nixon intended for this “Southern Strategy” to establish a new sun belt power
base for the Republican party in the south and west.
Indeed,
the Southern Strategy made the Republican party a political home for tens of
millions of white people who could not move on after the civil rights movement.
Strom Thurmond, who had run as a Dixiecrat candidate for president and
championed “massive resistance” to the Brown v Board of Ed decision, led the
march of southern Democrats into a Republican party that was ready to use
“positive polarization” to pit their base against a fusion coalition of Black,
white and brown voters whom Republicans demonized as “socialists,” “coastal
elites” and “godless progressives.” Though Republicans knew their base was
reactionary white conservatives, they did not make explicit appeals to white
supremacy. Instead, they insisted that their values were the true American
values. Casting themselves as the champions of everyday Americans in the
Heartland, they paved the way for Trump’s faux populism.
(The above taken from Heather Cox Richardson’s blog, “Letters
from an American.”
And Here's a Column by E. J. Dionne, bringing the above 1968 prediction up to date
Why the GOP is sticking with Trump’s deceit
His new supporters are important to House Republican victories
WASHINGTON – The refusal of most Republicans to stand against President Donald Trump’s unconscionable campaign to discredit a free election is one of the lowest points in the history of our republic - and a threat to democracy itself.
But understanding the motivation behind their irresponsibility requires a close look at what happened in the election itself.
At one level, the result was a solid defeat of Trump and Trumpism. President-elect Joe Biden’s projected electoral college vote matches Trump’s from four years ago, which back then the president called a “landslide.” Biden’s popular vote margin is approaching 6 million votes, more than double Hillary Clinton’s edge four years ago.
The long-term problem for the country, however, is that the outcome marks the near complete Trumpification of the GOP, and a far deeper partisan divide than existed even two years ago. A look at the election data from 2018 and 2020 shows that the alignment between the Trump vote and support for down-ballot Republicans, particularly in races for the House of Representatives, is closer than ever. Democrats are tearing each other apart because they not only failed to advance in the House; they actually lost seats. According to the Cook Political Report vote tracker, Republicans have netted 11 seats in the House with five races left to be decided.
What occurred is less mysterious than the polemics between the party’s wings would suggest.
The Democratic victory in House elections in 2018 was sweeping. The party flipped 43 seats and lost only three for a net gain of 40. More importantly, the Democrats achieved an unprecedented turnout of their supporters. Democratic House candidates won 60.7 million votes, compared with 51 million for the Republicans. Republicans got 10 million more votes than they won in the 2014 midterms, but the Democrats won an astonishing 25 million more.
The long-term problem for the country is that the outcome marks the near complete Trumpification of the GOP, and a far deeper partisan divide than existed even two years ago.
When you look at where the big 2018 turnout increase came from, it’s obvious that Democratic-leaning constituencies intent on punishing Trump far outperformed Trump’s core constituencies, perhaps because Trump himself was not on the ballot.
The Census Bureau found that turnout among those with college backgrounds, who tend to be Trump critics, rose significantly more than it did among those who didn’t attend college. Turnout in metro areas was up 12.2 points; in non-metros – Trump territory – it rose just 7.7 points.
But in 2020, Trump voters came out in droves and thus boosted down-ballot Republicans. Trump won over 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 – exit polls suggest that 6.5 million of his ballots came from first-time voters – which means he brought new supporters into the electorate who were important to this year’s House GOP victories.
As one Democratic strategist noted, “2018 was a wave year because our people showed up and theirs didn’t. 2020 was like a reversion to the mean because both sides showed up and right now we’re feeling the whiplash because no public or private data saw it coming.”
Nothing is clearer in the outcome than how closely the presidential vote matched the vote in House races. The latest count in the presidential race shows Biden with 51% of the popular vote. Cook’s tracker shows Democratic House candidates with 50.4% of the vote.
Democrats still managed to hold on in more than two-thirds of the 30 districts that went to Trump in 2016. But this achievement has a telling backstory: On the current count, it appears that at least 11 of the 30 Trump districts switched to Biden, and several more may eventually move Biden’s way. In these places, the Democrats’ strong showing in 2018 House races were a leading indicator of what was to come. So far, Republicans have picked up House seats in only four 2016 Clinton districts, with two others on the edge.
Going forward, figuring out how Trump won an additional 10 million votes is one of the most important questions in politics. Here’s a plausible and discouraging theory: Given Trump’s intemperate and often wild ranting in the campaign’s final weeks and the growing public role in GOP politics of QAnon conspiracists, the Proud Boys and other previously marginal extremist groups, these voters may well be more radical than the party as a whole. This means that Republicans looking to the future may be more focused on keeping such Trump loyalists in the electorate than on backing away from his abuses.
Trump’s bitterest harvest could thus be a Republican Party with absolutely no interest in a more moderate course and every reason to keep its supporters angry and on edge. Ignoring reality and denying Trump’s defeat is part of that effort.
E.J. Dionne, Washington Post columnist, is on Twitter: @EJDionne.
Illegal and
Unspeakable Words Out of the Mouths of Babes Teenagers
In posting on this
blog and elsewhere, I have gone to great pains to avoid touching upon what is both
illegal and unspeakable. The teen-age
daughter of a Palm Beach County Commissioner (who was called to task about it)
was not so cautious the other day when she included in a “tweet” critical of Florida’s conservative
Republican governor DeSantis (who doesn’t believe in masks nor social distancing
to fight the Coronavirus’ spread), the words “someone assassinate him already.” How many of us occasionally
harbor such really dangerous thoughts, which as mature adults we are able to
sublimate, but a less-conditioned teenager is able to blurt out? Cures can be worse than the malady they
attempt to address.
It Comes Out in the Wash
We take
commonplace things for granted. This
past Spring, when I was under the weather and had a health aide with me for a
while, I noticed that in addition to doing my laundry, he was bringing his in
to do in my washer and dryer. I didn’t
mind. Today I noted in a blog I receive from my old high school that another
Newark high school, Barringer H.S., has installed two washing machines and dryers
for the use of students who lack such conveniences at home. The blog went on to point out that the facility, free for students, will be a big boost
for young adults who are “housing insecure” and may not have access to a
washing machine at home. It's much more than a clean pair of socks, organizers
said. For students, it can also mean improved attendance, boosted confidence or
an end to bullying. How many of you have
this kind of problem? Be grateful.
Barringer is not the only high school where this is being done, a fact indicative
of the homes from which some students come, and those who are homeless.
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