Covid19 Testing on the Fourth of July, Sporting News

Today, on the Fourth of July, 2020, the Palm Beach Post indicated that there were 178,000 cases of Covid19 infection in the State of Florida as of July 3.  In Palm Beach County, the total was 15,300. 

What does this mean?   Does it mean that number have tested positive for the virus, regardless of whether or not they manifest symptoms of the disease or have gotten medical help or even been hospitalized to deal with it?  If so, we can understand the enormity of these numbers. They are large because they include a large number of people who are not overtly “sick.”  And they are cumulative numbers, but it is unclear as to whether the totals are weekly, monthly or from back when counting started.

On the other hand, if it includes only those who manifest symptoms of the disease or have gotten medical help or even been hospitalized to deal with it, it is a terrifyingly large number.

But you cannot have it both ways, nor an undefined combination of these two alternatives.  In my opinion, I believe the number represents no more than the number of those who have tested positively for the virus, regardless of whether or not they have symptoms of the disease. 

If it, on that other hand, includes only those who manifest symptoms of the disease or have gotten medical help or been hospitalized to deal with it, it is an unbelievably high number, far outstripping the total capacity of our hospitals and our medical establishment.  That’s why I take the “number of cases” to simply reflect the number testing positive for the virus. 

It is my opinion that this number, as I accept it as simply reflecting the number of positive tests, is worthless. 

It only becomes significant when it is presented as a percentage of those tested.  In a statistically large enough sample, that percentage of those testing positive becomes very significant.  Today’s Palm Beach Post reports that “Of the more than 3,700 test results received Thursday in Palm Beach County, 12.2% were positive for the virus.” That’s 452 cases.  (The similar percentage for the State was 14%).   Now, these percentages become meaningful when they are compared with the percentages of those tests which were positive over past weeks and months.  That is the key to whether there is a spike in the number of those who can pass on the infection to others.  So long as the number tested is large enough to be statistically valid, these percentages of positive tests are what matters.

Whether an infected person has symptoms or not, or whether they recover quickly, is meaningless.  All who test positive can spread the virus, and that is why the monitoring of the percentage of those testing positive out of all those tested is so important in determining how the battle against the virus is going.

Unfortunately, I don’t see that “percentage” number on TV nor on the front pages of our newspapers. You have to look for it deep in lengthy articles to find it, if it even is reported at all.   

Am I off base with this kind of thinking? 

JL

• Wear a mask when out of your home.
• Wash you hands frequently.  
• Use disinfecting gels.
• If necessary to go outside of your home, observe social distancing.
• Ignore efforts to "reopen" businesses, bars, restaurants, etc. despite any governmental okay to do so.
• Pay no attention to anything Governor DeSantis or President Trump say on this subject.  They know nothing about this.  
• The best source of information is Dr. Fauci.

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Sports - Effect of the Virus

Chances are, at least in my mind, that the Covid19 pandemic will cause an end to NFL and college football for the 2020 season.   For contact sports like football to be played, the teams must be isolated for the season and pre-season activities to avoid participants becoming infected with the virus.   Pro football players make enough to afford this kind of sacrifice from their family and their “other lives” but they also have made enough to forgo the season as well.   Most will choose this latter option.  College and high school football players have classes to attend and sometimes, live at home as well.  A season of isolation seems more of an impossibility for them than it does for the NFL players. 

To a lesser extent, the same is true of the NBA as well as college and high school basketball. I think they will not be playing this year for the same reasons.  Hockey just may survive with some seating modifications for the players.

Baseball is another story entirely.  Small modifications in rules (no sliding) can avoid the risks of infection caused by contact.   Some players will opt out anyway, but we will have baseball.   

In addition, we still will have tennis and golf on TV as well as soccer from non-American venues, where isolation apparently is not so great a burden, and for those who like the sport of kings, horse racing on TV.   The charade known as pro wrestling will not be affected since it really is not a sport.

The presence of spectators is unlikely in any sporting events that continue to carry on their activities.

JL