Tarriffs, Don Giovanni, a Trump Supporter Speaks Up and More on Internet Regulation

From the Right

The other day I was talking to a supporter of the President.  We disagreed on a lot of things.  I asked him to work with me and compose a letter voicing what he was saying to me.  Here is what he wrote, admittedly with my help putting his sometimes incoherent thoughts into words.

Jack:  I can’t agree with your constant attacks on President Trump in your blog.  Let’s look at the facts.  You may say that everyone is entitled to their opinion, but not to their own set of facts.  Well I happen to believe that my set of facts is more accurate than those you, and a lot of mainstream newspapers and TV commentators, believe.

First of all, even though Donald Trump didn’t get a majority of the votes cast, he did win the Electoral College vote in 2016 so there is no question as to his Presidential legitimacy.  If some voters were misled by material on TV and the internet which was planted there by Russia, it really didn’t differ greatly from the untruthful material posted by some Americans of different political persuasions.  It’s sad that campaigns are run at that level, regardless of who is doing the posting.   Dirt will be flung, regardless of who throws it.  In any event, no one has even come close to proving that what the Russians were doing was in cooperation with the Republican Party or the Trump organization.  Yet that is what the Special Prosecutor is spending millions of tax dollars to try to come up with.   Other things he has come up with, such as the Manafort and Ryan indictments, clearly indicate faith put in the wrong people by Donald Trump, but there have been such mistakes in many recent administrations, and no one made a big deal about them, as the Democrats and the media are doing today. There were firings and that was that.  Furthermore, Special Prosecutor Mueller is going far, far beyond what he was supposed to be doing when he investigates such people, and that includes Michael Cohen, who even if he has been involved in wrongdoing, should not be the subject of Mueller’ probe, which he is, despite it being “delegated” by a compliant Acting Attorney General to the Southern District of New York.

The tax reform bill is truly a great accomplishment of the Administration.  Most workers are already getting an increase in their take home pay.  True, the wealthy and corporations have received benefits as well, but that will be channeled back into the economy, creating more jobs.  And the President, even aside from this, has reduced unemployment.  That’s an unarguable fact!

As for health care, the Affordable Care Act only served to make a bad situation worse.  People with health insurance with which they were satisfied were conned into purchasing policies they could not afford.  People who didn’t want to buy insurance were penalized.  Employers were shackled with another costly responsibility. The only ones who truly benefited were people on Medicaid who didn’t have to pay for their coverage.  If it’s free, of course you’d like it. But nothing is free.  The taxpayer ultimately foots the bill and that bill, it has been repeatedly shown, is higher when the government gets involved than when it is done through the private sector.  This is the direction the President is attempting to lead us over the next two and a half years.

When the President talks about tariffs and our coming out on the short end of the stick when trading with other countries, he is thinking about the American worker.  To him, that is the bottom line.  If American jobs are lost to foreign workers, it doesn’t matter that we ultimately come out ahead in our county’s bank accounts or through the sale of our technology, which may be the case.  To him, it’s jobs that count and he knows that. NAFTA is a good example.  Show me an American worker who is in love with it.

You and the media often attack the reduction in government regulations.  Well, businesses can operate more efficiently when government is on their side and not putting obstacles in their way.  If a business does something improper, there are plenty of legal avenues where redress can be sought.  A few bad apples don’t justify throwing away the barrel, which is what excessive regulations have accomplished.  Trump is fixing this. And the United States has become a leader in petroleum production. Pipelines and fracking, long fought by regulators but encouraged by the President, have made that possible.  And the same goes for other businesses.

As for foreign affairs, North Korea and even Iran now know that we mean business and are not taking us for patsies as we plan negotiations with both.  And when Syrian despot Assad crossed a red line, unlike Barack Obama, we bombed his country.  Many Democrats even believed that was the right thing to do!  When the President took steps to move the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, he sent a message to the Palestinians saying they had better get serious about negotiating with Israel and get rid of Hamas or they will see their dream of a State of their own drifting further and further away.

Finally, many personal attacks have been made on the President as being a womanizer.  Many Presidents have been subject to similar criticism, however, only recently has that been fair game for the media.  Bill Clinton and Jack Kennedy are good examples.  Franklin Roosevelt, Dwight Eisenhower and even overweight Grover Cleveland played around and no one really cared.   I will agree with attacks on the President’s sexual behavior only when it affects the manner in which he carries out the duties of the Presidency.  And I don’t see that happening.

I ask you one thing, Jack.  Give the man credit for what he is accomplishing despite the opposition, often covert, of those entrenched in the maze of government bureaucracy politely referred to as a swamp.  The President is doing his best to make America great.  Please help him.

So what do you think, folks? 

JL

Tariffs, Schmariffs, Not the Solution

Economic Thoughts from a Non-economist

So our President threatens China with 100 billion dollars in tariffs.  This moron (ex-Secretary of State Tillerson had it right) glosses over the fact, or possibly doesn’t even know, that when we do that, the hundred billion dollars, while paid to our Treasury Department by the importers of “stuff” from China, is passed on by price increases to whomever in this country they sell their “stuff.” That could be anyone who manufactures things from steel and aluminum from China and folks who buy clothing, electronics, appliances and other “stuff” made in China. 

Dollar Stores, where most of the merchandise is “stuff” imported from China, will perhaps have to become Dollar and a Half Stores.  Look at the number of “made in China” labels the next time you are in any retail outlet.  Bottom line is that that 100 billion dollars in tariff money will be paid into our Treasury Department, not by China, but by the American consumer.  Trump’s tariff won’t hurt China.  Rather, it will hurt the American consumer upon whom it will amount to a Federal sales tax designed to pull in 100 billion dollars.  It appears that our President is either unaware of this or too dumb to understand it.  

I think he is under the illusion that because of their tariff-inflated higher prices, the imported goods will not be purchased and goods made in the United States will be purchased instead.  Supposedly, this will create unemployment in China, hurt their economy and result in job creation here.  Nice try … but not so.

The trouble with that is that because of our workers’ higher standard of living, most stuff made here will still be more expensive than the Chinese stuff, even with the tariff added to the price.  Of course, American goods might conceivably be cheaper if we automated our manufacturing to the extent whereby there would be just a few employees left here working in this country with a lot of robots performing tasks formerly done by salaried workers.  That would lower prices on stuff made here. But this would create so much American unemployment, unfortunately, that consumers here would not have the jobs nor the money to be able to afford anything, regardless of any tariff which may or may not be involved.  (This may happen anyway as automated manufacturing grows.)  While this lack of consumption might temporarily cause prices to drop for the few remaining Americans who had jobs producing American-made goods, whatever they spend would not be sufficient to keep our economy growing.  Then, everything would grind to a halt as we entered a tariff-fueled depression.

Not even considered by the President is that China is not going to accept such tariffs without retaliating with ones of their own.  And these would severely impact the income of Americans, mostly in the agricultural areas of the Midwest, whose livelihood is based on exporting to China, who would look for another source from which to buy, for example, their soy beans, our major export to China.

That's a lot of soybeans they're buying from us!  (See if you can find the typo on this graph)

And these folks, many of whom voted for Trump, will begin to wonder why the bottom has fallen out of their soy bean market.  Or they might be just gullible enough to blame it on Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama or Nancy Pelosi.  Fox is still busy attacking them and wondering why their wrongdoings aren’t being investigated with the vigor which Special Prosecutor Mueller is proceeding.  (The answer to that is that their ethical shortcomings, whatever they may be, are dwarfed by the smelly sludge surrounding the man in the White House.) But getting back to trade ....

Historically, there have been many who advocated the kind of blind protectionism of which President Trump seems to be a champion.  They have included Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot, both of whom ran for President.  Even Hillary Clinton took protectionist positions designed to cater to her union supporters. It's an easy, but often insincere, position to take. In fact, in reviewing some of my own letters, I have sometimes, usually too hastily, leaned in that direction. But in the end, America's corporate structure wielded enough power to keep protectionism in the background and wisely plant the United States firmly in the camp of globalization of trade.

Politics aside, the real answer is that a finely tuned world economy, where everyone trades with everyone else, with each country’s economy exporting what it does best and importing what others do better, works out well for all participants.  A little bit of government subsidy here and there and an occasional minor tariff to smooth things out can work wonders with such globalization.  It’s not so simple as the President sees it, but that’s what advisors are for.   And of course, advisors who always agree with you are of no value.  Advisors who make different suggestions aren’t any good either when the President, out of ignorance, agrees with all of them.

Jack Lippman

Who's Going to Hell?

The other evening, I heard Michael Avenatti (Stormy Daniels’ lawyer) comment during one of his many TV appearances that he was “shocked” by the quality of legal representation President Trump has in regard to his client’s case as well as for the President’s involvement with Special Prosecutor Mueller’s investigation, in which he is peripherally involved.  One would suspect that a successful businessman, now President of the United States, would have representation by top legal experts with heavy experience in these kinds of matters.  According to Avenatti, this is just not the case. He has made comments implying that while he is “playing chess,” Trump’s lawyers are playing “tic tac toe” in representing him.  

(Personally, I believe the President's horrid choice of lawyers is based on his conception of the lawyers as people who can figure out ways for you to do illegal things legally.  He has no concept of justice, honesty and no respect for the law.  That's his problem.)

This observation of Avenatti's is not unlike my oft-stated puzzlement about how a man of such limited intellectual ability managed to be successful in the New York City real estate world, where some of the most clever, shrewdest and sometimes dishonest operators are encountered on a daily basis.  From what I’ve seen from him as President, he lacks the ability to have been competitive in that arena.  Yet he was. 

Someday the story will be written of how Donald Trump’s road to success was paved.  From his initial funding by his successful (and bigoted) father, through his career as a real estate developer, casino and hotel operator, TV personality, reality show impresario and licensor of his name to others, to his ascension to the Presidency of the United States, there is much yet to be written.  There probably are dozens of competitors in each of the fields in which he has worked who are far superior to him in knowledge and business skills and who can out-negotiate him with one hand tied behind their backs. Of the seventeen who vied for the Republican Presidential nomination, he was clearly the least qualified for the job.  A blind man could see that!  Yet, he prevailed there as he has prevailed elsewhere.  The reasons why will someday be written about.  But not today.  And certainly not by me.  And it will be a best seller!

But quite simply, Donald Trump is going down.  How do I know?  I’ve increased my viewing time on Fox and I can sense the feeling of panic spreading throughout their organization.  Even Laura Ingraham  seems to be cracking, mouthing unsupportable ideas every time she talks.   Today’s Fox line is that the appointment of a Special Prosecutor is unconstitutional. Along with the President, they are being backed into a corner where they can no longer scream about Hillary Clinton’s emails or Benghazi  or  the evils of Obamacare.  They are beginning to realize that facts just cannot be denied.  They know the judge who signed off on the Justice Department seizure of records at Trump’s lawyer’s New York offices only did so because there were good and totally legal reasons to do so.  They know life-long Republican Robert Mueller has probably already found out enough to bring down the President. Whether he will go that far is another question, however.

Trump’s screaming at everyone in the Department of Justice (Sessions, Rosenbaum, Mueller) is an indication of his own panic.  Some Republicans are now becoming reluctant to apologize for him.  They don’t want to go down with him when his presidency collapses.  Paul Ryan is walking away from him, with family responsibility as his excuse. Mitch McConnell is still wearing his blinders, but they will be coming loose shortly.  And EPA Secretary Pruitt, who is far to the right of Trump, is practicing being President in his EPA environment, hoping to become a right wing alternative to an ultimately impeached President who will drag his Vice-President along with him into the recesses of history.  

Trump’s Russian connections, probably through Deutsche Bank financing, their effect upon the 2016 election, the payoffs engineered by his fixer, lawyer Michael Cohen, his lifetime of not paying bills, bankruptcies and  browbeating people, and his pathological womanizing will all come together to bring him down, abandoned by the Republican Party, and probably Melania and Ivanka as well.  It will almost equal the final scene of Mozart’s Don Giovanni.

Stick around.  It’s coming to a TV set in your home within the next five or six months.  I can feel it.

If, however, I am wrong, the only explanation can be that democracy in America no longer works.  That about 40% of the American people are firmly locked into Trump’s simplistic and ultimately unworkable solutions to their problems while the Republicans gleefully give tax breaks to the already wealthy  

and destroy regulations put in place to protect the American people, is a very sad commentary on the state of our nation.  It suggests that as the curtain descends, we and not Donald Trump might be the ones going to Hell.  But I don’t think I am wrong.

All, however, is not a bed of roses.   I feel that if the 2016 Presidential Election were held today, the results would be the same.  Trump's base in crucial states remains.  They ignore economics and they ignore anything that isn't on Fox.   Hence, the only solution rests in Democrats taking over the House in 2018 and coming close to taking over the Senate.  That will change things. It will somewhat level the playing field for the 2020 Presidential election.  Hopefully, the evil, the bigoted, the gullible and the just plain stupid people who comprise Trump's base will be neutralized with the G.O.P. given back to real Republicans.  They will lick their wounds, imposed from the right, attempt to regroup ... but be unable to hold off the Democrats.
JL

Regulating the Internet

It is evident that the world of information technology encompassing such giants as Facebook, Google, Amazon and thousands of other players has reached a crossroads.  Their excesses have been reported in the media and included in recent blog postings here.  The signs at that crossroads point in two directions.  One is toward the European approach to the problem which features increased government regulation.  (The prior posting on this blog described one idea for us in this direction.)  The other is the traditional American approach of unregulated freedom for the Silicon Valleys of the world.  This position is championed by of all countries, China!  But we know, of course, that their position of a lack of formal regulation of the internet, allowing their theivery of technology to take place, occurs in a society where total regulation of everything else actually exists, so it's a no brainer to disbelieve them.

 JL

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