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Early Presidential Prognostications
As
the races to determine who will be the 2016 Presidential nominees progress,
here is what it looks like to me at this point.
Of course, I can change my mind as time goes by.
Most
of those seeking the Republican nomination lack the financial resources to
finance a Presidential campaign or even a strong primary campaign, but they are
hanging in there in the hope that a deadlocked party will turn to them as a
compromise candidate. With that in mind,
let’s focus on the candidates who seem to have access the financial resources required
to successfully compete. At this point,
I feel that there are only three such candidates, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and
Scott Walker. All of the others are either financially disadvantaged or, at
least at this point, clearly unelectable on a national basis.
Walker, Clinton, Bush, Sanders and Rubio
Jeb
Bush and Marco Rubio will face off in a Presidential preference primary in
their home state of Florida in March of 2016.
Because of his positions on education and immigration, Bush will lose in
that contest to Rubio, and thereafter, his campaign will falter. Rubio, however, has also “flip-flopped” on
immigration, and does not present the appearance of maturity a Presidential candidate
should have, leaving the way open for Scott Walker to amass primary victories
and a victory at the G.O.P. convention.
This is where the other candidates come in, if the G.O.P. decides that
Walker’s limited experience is enough of a negative that they must seek another
choice. At that point, they might even resurrect
Jeb Bush’s candidacy. But at this
moment, I think they will go with Scott Walker.
(If they really want to pull a winner out of a hat, they might even
consider Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts as an alternative to Walker
but I doubt that will happen.)
As
for the Democrats, the nomination is Hillary Clinton’s for the taking. She will be able to handle the Republican
attacks on her (Benghazi, private email account and the Clinton Foundation) but
her chief problem will be maintaining the support of more progressive Democrats. Right now, Bernie Sanders has consolidated much
of that part of the Democratic base, and while he poses no threat in terms of
the nomination, the contrast between what he is saying, and what Hillary
Clinton is not saying, may keep enough Democrats away from the polls in 2016
for the G.O.P. to eke out a win. Hillary
must swing leftward to prevent this from happening, as her failure to do so did in 2008 when she
lost the nomination to Barack Obama.
In an extremely unlikely scenario in which Hillary Clinton drops out of the race, I suspect that Sanders would also end his candidacy deferring to Elizabeth Warren who, like the Lone Ranger, will ride onto the scene and secure the nomination. (Other Democratic challengers such as Webb and O'Malley have no chance.) Of course, I feel the chances of this happening are far less than 1%.
In an extremely unlikely scenario in which Hillary Clinton drops out of the race, I suspect that Sanders would also end his candidacy deferring to Elizabeth Warren who, like the Lone Ranger, will ride onto the scene and secure the nomination. (Other Democratic challengers such as Webb and O'Malley have no chance.) Of course, I feel the chances of this happening are far less than 1%.
As
for the Presidential election itself, what it really will come down to is which
candidate will win the electoral votes of at least two of these three states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Having Presidential elections in the other 47
states is an exercise in democracy, but really is not necessary.
Jack Lippman
In the preceding blog posting,
where I discussed the pending sale of the NPR station in West Palm Beach,
the phrase HD radio was used in describing one of the other ways WPBI-News' signal was transmitted besides from its weak 250 watt FM transmitter. I really don't like to throw around words which most blog followers will not understand. With that in mind, read on, if you wish.
“HD” radio does not stand for “high
definition” radio; it is a registered trademark for a particular method of a
radio station sending out one or more “digital” signals grafted onto their
existing “analog” signal, and may, I suppose, be thought of as a hybrid sort of
transmission, hence the inspirational origin for "HD" as used in this trademark might possibly be the words"hybrid digital." If you want a more
detailed explanation of HD radio, here is the article on it from Wikepedia.com. I have highlighted what I feel are the
pertinent parts of the article. This type of radio broadcasting will become increasingly important over the next few years.
JL
HD Radio is a trademarked term for iBiquity's in-band on-channel
(IBOC) digital radio
technology used by AM and FM radio stations to transmit audio
and data by using a digital signal embedded “on-frequency”
immediately above and below a station's standard analog signal, providing the means to listen
to the same program in either HD (digital radio with less noise) or as a standard
broadcast (analog radio with standard sound quality). The HD format also provides the means for a single
radio station to simultaneously broadcast one or more different programs in
addition to the program being transmitted on the radio station's analog
channel.
It was selected by the U.S.
Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in 2002 as a digital audio
broadcasting method for the United States, and is the only digital system
approved by the FCC for digital AM/FM broadcasts in the United States. It is
officially known as NRSC-5, with the latest version being NRSC-5-C. Other digital radio systems include FMeXtra, Digital Audio
Broadcasting (DAB) (Eureka 147), Digital Radio
Mondiale (DRM30 and DRM+ configurations), and Compatible
AM-Digital (CAM-D).
While HD Radio does allow
for an all-digital mode, this system currently is used by some AM and FM radio
stations to simulcast both digital and analog audio within
the same channel (a hybridized digital-analog signal) as well as to add new FM
channels and text information. Although HD Radio broadcasting's content is
currently subscription-free,
listeners must purchase new receivers in order to receive the digital portion
of the signal.
As of May 2009, there were
more stations in the world on the air with HD Radio technology than any other
digital radio technology. More than 1,900 stations covering approximately 84%
of the United States are broadcasting with this technology, and more than 1,000
HD2 and HD3 multicast channels are on the air. According to iBiquity's website, the "HD" is
simply a brand name and has no meaning. There is no connection with high-definition
television (HDTV), although like HDTV the HD Radio
specification provides enhanced capabilities over the old analog format, such
as 5.1 surround sound.
The FCC has not indicated
any intent to force off analog radio broadcasts as it has with analog television broadcasts, as it would not
result in the recovery of any radio spectrum rights which could be sold.
Thus, there is no deadline by which consumers must buy an HD Radio receiver. In
addition, there are many more analog AM/FM radio receivers than there were
analog televisions, and many of these are car stereos or portable units that
cannot be upgraded.
Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy
JL
HOW TO BE ALERTED TO FUTURE BLOG POSTINGS.
Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy
The problem in Greece, and in the rest of the European
Economic Community is that while that "union" unites its members insofar as monetary
policy is concerned with a common currency (with a few exceptions), it does not
do so in terms of fiscal policy.
Simplifying it greatly, monetary policy is concerned with
the management of interest rates and the supply of money in circulation,
including currency, and is controlled by a "central (government) bank" of some sort. Fiscal policy covers the taxing and spending
policies of an individual nation. Hence,
there can be great disparities between what taxes different European governments collect
and what programs they finance, without any connection to interest rate
policy and the money supply into which they are locked by the European Central Bank which controls monetary policy.
An example of this is the younger retirement age
common in Greece and the somewhat older retirement age in other Euro
countries. The Greek government’s fiscal
policy then has to provide benefits to a greater percentage of retirees,
without the benefit of adjustments in monetary policy, a tactic which might make this
task easier. They cannot print more
money with which to pay these benefits, because they don’t control their own
monetary policy, and they can only borrow to do so within the framework of the
rules set up by the European Central Bank. The present crisis results from Greece's inability to comply with those rules.
In the United States, monetary policy is
controlled by the Federal Reserve Bank for all fifty states. The "Fed" is our central bank. Fiscal policy (taxing and spending), however, is determined by the
individual states for certain things and by the Federal government for other
things. The Constitution leaves to the
States all powers which it doesn’t specifically give to the Federal
government. Consequently, both the Federal Government and
the individual states levy taxes or borrow to fund the spending their legislatures in Washington and in the 50 State capitals authorize.
Americans pay Federal taxes to support the Federal military, Social Security and other Federal government programs. Americans also pay State taxes to support such State programs as education, roadways and motor vehicle regulation.
In the European economy, individual nations (analogous to our States) can tax and spend revenues on their programs just as our states do, but they have no ability to regulate interest rates, borrowing and currency, something only the European Central Bank can do.
In the United States, the "Fed" also regulates interest rates, borrowing and currency, enabling Federal spending to be facilitated, but the fifty States do not have this crutch of monetary policy upon which to lean in financing State programs. They are more or less in the same position as Euro nations. But much of what each European nations must finance on their own has been transferred to the Federal government in the United States, where adjustments in monetary policy are possible. This is a delicate division, one that is impossible in Europe where there is no "federal" government for the continent, other than for monetary policy. For this advantage which the United States has over Europe, we owe a vote of thanks to Alexander Hamilton, the strongest advocate among the "founding fathers" of a strong central government in the United States.
Americans pay Federal taxes to support the Federal military, Social Security and other Federal government programs. Americans also pay State taxes to support such State programs as education, roadways and motor vehicle regulation.
In the European economy, individual nations (analogous to our States) can tax and spend revenues on their programs just as our states do, but they have no ability to regulate interest rates, borrowing and currency, something only the European Central Bank can do.
In the United States, the "Fed" also regulates interest rates, borrowing and currency, enabling Federal spending to be facilitated, but the fifty States do not have this crutch of monetary policy upon which to lean in financing State programs. They are more or less in the same position as Euro nations. But much of what each European nations must finance on their own has been transferred to the Federal government in the United States, where adjustments in monetary policy are possible. This is a delicate division, one that is impossible in Europe where there is no "federal" government for the continent, other than for monetary policy. For this advantage which the United States has over Europe, we owe a vote of thanks to Alexander Hamilton, the strongest advocate among the "founding fathers" of a strong central government in the United States.
* * * *
Regarding the crisis in Greece, I heard the following "joke" the other day:
German Chancellor Angela Merkel was recently visiting Greece in order to help solve their economic problem. The following conversation ensued as she entered the country at the airport in Athens.
Customs Official: Name?
Merkel: Angela Merkel
Customs Official: Age?
Merkel: 56
Customs Official: Occupation?
Merkel: Not yet.
JL
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