Senate Election Predictions, Another "Religion" Short Story, an Interview with the Israeli Defense Mininster and "Trickle Down Dies in Kansas"

                                                                

Senate Election Predictions - Independents May Be Crucial

Election Day in November 4.   If you have not already taken advantage of early voting opportunities or absentee voting, be sure to vote at your polling place early on Tuesday.

And now for my predictions:  It is really impossible to predict who will win the many close races for Senate seats.  Pollsters disagree.  Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Colorado, New Hampshire, Kansas, Louisiana and North Carolina are all close races.  I predict that in these close races the Democrats will win only in New Hampshire, North Carolina and perhaps in Colorado.  They will not take over any seats which are presently held by Republicans.   The Republicans will win in Georgia, Kentucky, Alaska, Iowa. Arkansas and Louisiana, the last four involving capturing seats which are presently Democratic. I predict that the Independent candidate in Kansas will win, replacing an existing Republican Senator.

This means that there will be 49 Senators carrying the Democratic label and 48 with the G.O.P. brand.  Independent Bernie Sanders (Vermont) will caucus with the Democrats bringing their count to 50.  Independent Angus King (Maine) who presently caucuses with the Democrats and Independent Greg Orman who is likely to win the presently Republican seat in Kansas are both likely to decide to caucus with the party which turns out to be the majority party.  Even if they vote with the G.O.P., however, that would still result in a 50–50 seat split, giving the Democrats control by virtue of Vice-President Joe Biden’s tie-breaking vote.  So if my very tentative predictions are correct, they both will caucus with the Democrats, giving them a 52-48 edge. 

If however, one of the three close states I predict will elect a Democratic Senator (New Hampshire, Colorado and North Carolina) go Republican, both of the Independents will caucus with the G.O.P. giving them a 51-49 edge.  If Colorado goes Republican, for example, the Independents will caucus with the Republicans.  Right now, most polls favor the G.O.P. candidate in that state, Cory Gardner, but I suspect that incumbent Mark Udall will squeeze out a victory.  His loss, however, will give the Senate majority over to the Republicans.  It will be close.

But even with a Udall defeat, if Senator Mary Landrieu (whom I predict will lose) manages to win in Louisiana, and that race might require a run-off, it’s back to the Vice-Presidential vote as a tie-breaker and the two Independents swinging back to the Democrats.  If anyone tells  you they know how this will come out, don’t believe them.  There are far too many variables. 

If you are a political junky and willing to stay up late on November 4, keep an eye on the Senate races in Louisiana, Kansas and most importantly, Colorado.

   

Clockwise from left: Greg Orman (KS), Mark Udall (CO) and Mary Landrieu (LA) are in crucial races


In the House (that Gerrymandering built), the Republicans will increase their majority by four or five seats, but the extreme right wing of that party will still prevent the intelligent use of that majority, as it has since 2010.  This problem will now extend to the Senate, if the Republicans gain control of it.  All of this will be remedied, of course, in 2016 when any Democratic candidate will win, and bring in a Democratic Senate and House along with him or her. 

And here in Florida, Charlie Crist will defeat Rick Scott.  Many Floridians are gullible or worse, but not that many.
JL
                                                       

Bloomberg Businessweek’s Charlie Rose Interviews Israel Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon
  

At this point, Ya’alon does not support a two-state solution to the present situation involving the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza.  Rose asked him several important questions in this week's issue of the magazine (which I recommend as something worth subscribing to).  My yellow highlighting emphasizes comments I feel are very significant but, please, read the entire interview.  It is difficult for those who advocate a two-state solution to ignore what Ya'alon says.  JL

Ya'alon in a recent meeting with John Kerry, with whom I am certain he has significant points of disagreement.

When you look at groups like Islamic State, do you believe there’s something in Islam that motivates them?  …  First of all, not all Muslims are jihadists. But all jihadists are Muslims. This is a clash between civilizations. You can see poverty exploited by their leaders. And they know how to approach these frustrated people in their societies. And how to motivate them to become either [Islamic State] followers, al-Qaeda followers, or with al-Nusra or Muslim Brotherhood. It is a vicious circle. I don’t believe that a society that certifies death might prevail. They deteriorate the situation regarding the economy, regarding everything, because they certify death rather than life.

There appears to be a growing level of discontent, especially in Europe, with Israeli policy regarding the Palestinians. …  We were ready for compromise. But with this experience with the Palestinians, in which any piece of territory which was delivered to their responsibility had become either a safe haven for terrorists or rocket launching pads, as we witness now in the Gaza Strip, do you believe that the only way is to withdraw? What did we get from our withdrawal from Gaza and from Jenin and Nablus, the areas that we delivered to their responsibility in the West Bank? They choose the way of the rockets. That’s why we have to take the security measures.

Do you accept the idea that there could be a peace treaty that gives Palestinians their own state?  …  Theoretically you are right. But I have experience with the Palestinians for more than 20 years. And unfortunately, international discourse regarding the conflict is dominated by misconceptions. One of them is, what is the cause of instability in the Middle East? The uprising in Tunisia, counterrevolution in Egypt, civil war in Syria—it’s not because of us. The next is regarding the core of the conflict. I personally supported [the] Oslo [Accords]. But when I found that we don’t have a partner on the Palestinian side who is ready to recognize our right to exist as a nation-state of Jewish people, I realized that we should find another way, not just talking about the 1967 lines and a Palestinian state.

What would change your mind so that you would be supportive of a Palestinian state? …  Educational reform. Looking to their textbooks, seeing that there is no education for hatred, that there is education for peace. This is the way we educate our kids in Israel. Education is the first signal for me to start to trust the option of having peace with them.

What do you see as Iran’s role in the Middle East right now? …  They have their own interests in Iraq as well as in Syria, protecting the Shia regime in Iraq and protecting Bashar al-Assad in Syria. They’re playing a nasty role. Iran is still the main generator and instigator for instability in the region. They support certain elements in Afghanistan not to allow stability [there]. 

How much of a threat does Islamic State pose to Baghdad?  …  They intend to take over Baghdad, as they intend to take over whatever is available, like Damascus. They are deployed already close to Baghdad. But if the coalition is going to use air superiority in an effective way, they can be stopped. Of course, there is a need for the Iraqi armed forces to do their job on the ground as well. With the air support of the coalition, I believe that they can.

President Obama has said the Syria conflict could last 30 years. Do you agree?  …  I’m not sure if it will take 30 years. We should be patient, generally speaking. We want instant food; we want instant peace; we want instant democratization. It’s a long process to deal with these jihadists. It’s a method of heart and mind. We should be ready for a long operation.

                                                            
                                                         

The Death of "Trickle Down"

Ever wonder why Republicans win elections which from a rational standpoint, they should lose?  Well, the answer is in Kansas, a solid Republican state where the G.O.P made the great mistake of actually believing the malarkey they spout during campaigns.

Governor Sam Brownback tried to put G.O.P economic theory into practice by slashing personal and corporate income taxes down to their bare bone minimums and beyond!  Theoretically, this added money remained in the pockets of individuals (maximum state income tax dropped to 24%, regardless of how great one’s income is) and businesses (corporate tax rate dropped to zero in most situations) and should have produced business expansion and personal consumption, creating a tremendous amount of jobs.

Kansas Governor Sam Brownback wondering what businesses did with their tax savings 

Well, it didn’t.  In fact, job growth was significantly greater in the surrounding states which didn’t reduce taxes the way Kansas did.  And even worse, state revenues dropped because of the tax cuts leading to reduced services and job layoffs. This made hitherto docile Republicans mad.  This is what happens when Republicans practice what they preach.  Brownback had campaigned on these issues for so long that he was foolish enough to actually believe them.

So, in the heartland of G.O.P. power, the Republicans are now in trouble.  Voters are beginning to see G.O.P. talking points for the hogwash they actually are.  Long term Republican Senator Pat Roberts is in big trouble, primarily because he is stuck with the G.O.P. label which Kansans now have learned to distrust.  An Independent candidate, Greg Orman, currently is favored to beat him.  There is also a Libertarian candidate in the race, but no Democrat is running, although one is contesting Brownback's run for re-election to the governorship.  Democrats will vote for Orman, along with those finally disillusioned with the Republican Party, which has hoodwinked them for so long.

The Bottom Line: Reducing taxes for the benefit of businesses does not guarantee that what they do with the extra money will create jobs ... and when the voters (even Republican voters) realize this, it has an effect at the polls.

JL

                                                          


A Short Story


The last posting included a short story dealing with religion from my archives.  Here's another one which goes down the same path and which carries on the theme of the one in the previous posting.  This one dates from 2001.

                                              

Getting Fed

Jack Lippman

Hungry and cold, the vagrants huddled in a line against the worn brick wall of the Helping Savior Mission down on Ferry Street in that part of the city most folks try to avoid.  The biting wind whistled up from the riverfront where abandoned warehouses and docks could be seen a few blocks off as a blur of gray in the fast darkening twilight.  Scraps of dirty frozen snow remained from the last snowstorm, two weeks before. 

“This your first time here, buddy,?” the tall gray-faced man in a faded, torn ski parka asked the slightly shorter, much younger, but equally poorly-clothed man hunched over against the wind, just ahead of him in the ragged line.

“Yup.  I heard that they give you a nice spread down here, and maybe a place to sack out for the night.  That would be a helluva lot better than the City Shelter I’ve been going to.  Did I hear right?”

“You sure did.  But it isn’t as easy as it sounds.  You’ll see when Parson Jenkins opens up in a few minutes.”

“Whad’ya mean,” the younger man asked, blowing into his hands to create some warmth.

“Well, he sits us down when we go in and he starts preaching about love and hell and damnation and being saved.  What it comes down to is a half hour pitch to get us to stand up and accept Jesus as our personal savior.”

“And what if you don’t?  Do you still get fed?”

“Sure, but you probably will be down toward the end of the table and miss out on some of the good stuff they pass around family style, and as for a bed, they only got about twenty, and look, there’s twice as many as that in line here already, so if you don’t stand up and accept Jesus real quick, you probably will end up at the City Shelter again.”

“Oh, shit,” the younger man exclaimed.

 

“What’s the matter?  All you gotta do is accept Jesus.  It’s easy.  I do it all the time when I come down here.  I never been to church much or pray much, but if the Parson wants me to personally accept Jesus as my savior so as to get fed good and get a nice bed, I’m always willing.  Hey, look!  The door is open and the line is starting to move.”

Soon, all of the men were seated in the dingy chapel which might have been a hardware store in a prior incarnation.  The younger man looked around at the three dozen or so men slouched on rickety wooden folding chairs.  Most were black, but there was a sprinkling of Hispanics and Asians along with about ten whites.  All of them looked and smelled like they needed a good shower and shave beside the free meal.  

Then there was a knocking noise as a short man, with deep black hair and intense eyes, firmly rapped his knuckles a few times on a worn lectern at the front of the room.

 

“Gentlemen, let us pray together.”

And with that, Parson Jenkins launched into a sermon about how Christ’s love had brought them together that evening and how they had the chance to save themselves and avoid damnation, and then followed his fervent plea for them to stand up and step forward and accept Jesus as a personal savior.   Somewhere in the back, a scratchy tape started playing gospel music.  Within five minutes, at least twenty men had stepped forward, mumbled their acceptance of Jesus Christ to Parson Jenkins, and took seats to his left and to his right at a long table just behind the lectern.  Meanwhile, the others, including the younger man who hadn’t been there before, filled the rest of the places.

After the meal, the newcomer felt a tap on his shoulder and turned from the table to see the piercing eyes of Parson Jenkins staring into his face.

“Young man, why did you not come forward tonight to accept the Son of God, Jesus Christ, as your personal savior?  Did you not hear my message?”

“Well, I kinda got my own ideas about religion, Parson.  Now don’t get me wrong.  Yeah, I believe in God, alright, but I don’t think I need a personal savior right now, and what’s more, I am not going to lie about it to you just to get a place to sack out tonight.  I may be down and out, but I’m still too proud a man to have to do that, get it?”

“Young man, let me explain something.  Soon, because we all are sinners, Armageddon will occur and the world as we know it will end, but Jesus has promised to save all who personally accept him as their savior, and amidst the chaos and final destruction of the world, they will join with Jesus in that final rapture which will endure for eternity, but remember, son, only those who accept Christ personally beforehand will partake of that rapture!  Everyone else will suffer eternal damnation in hell.  Do you understand?”

The young man’s gaze fully met the intensity of Parson Jenkins’ eyes.

“Now let me explain something, Parson.  The God I believe in is the same God, I reckon, that Catholics, Protestants, Jews and Muslims all believe in, and probably the same God that Hindus and Sikhs and Buddhists and whoever else, even natives on some island somewhere praying to rocks and trees believe in too.  I sort of think of God as sitting on top of a mountain, Parson, and there are many, many, paths snaking up that mountain.  I think I can take any of them, including the one Jesus points out, and still get there if I really want to.  Do you understand?”

“Yes, I do, my son.  And you are so wrong.  For example, look at all the misery the Jewish people, God’s chosen people, have suffered and only because they will not accept Jesus as the Lord.  Look, I want you to spend the night here.  All of the beds are assigned, but you can have my cot.  I must spend time speaking with you and praying with you.  I must convince you of how wrong you are.”

The young man turned and smiled at the Parson.  “I admire the strength of your belief, Parson, but I think I’d rather leave now.  Thanks a lot for the hot meal.  I really needed it.  Good night.”

And with that he turned and walked out of the musty chapel into the cold night.  Once outside, he pulled his thin jacket’s worn collar up and broke into a trot along the now dark streets until he was two blocks away.  Stopping beside a parked white Lexus, he thanked God that it was still there undamaged, took the keys from his pocket, got in and drove off.

Once back at his desk at the Morning Eagle, he started typing at his keyboard.

“Whatcha doing, Boss?” the nightshift copyboy, who happened to be a girl, called out.

“Nothin’much, Carrie.  I just finished my research and want to wrap up that Op-Ed piece we’re running on Sunday about the President’s plans for faith-based charities.”
                                         

  

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