Thoughts on the Gaza Ceasefire, Terrorists and a Short Story from the Archives

My Predictions:  I had predicted a gain of ten seats in the House of Representatives  by the Democrats.  They have gained eight.  That's pretty close.  Stick with me and I'll tell you who will win the Super Bowl! 

Poll Results:  Seven followers voted in the recent poll asking about the Supreme Court's Citzens United decision.  All seven voted that there should be some modification of it by the court.  Any suggestions for a poll question, one that a lot of folks will respond to?  Let me know.
JL

                                                            

Dealing with Hamas' Strategy and Tactics:

Why do Hamas and other groups in Gaza feel justified in launching rockets at civilian targets in Israel?  It is clear that Israel’s bombardment of Gaza, including air strikes, was in retaliation for these missiles coming from Gaza.  What then, in the minds of Hamas and other extremists, is the provocation for their launching missiles at Israel? Certainly, they are not in response to the bombardment of Gaza by Israel which wouldn’t have occurred were it not for the missiles in the first place. 

Hamas and other extremists are dedicated to the extermination of the State of Israel because they believe the territory Israel occupies rightfully belongs to the Arabs who lived there as part of the British protectorate and before that as part of the Ottoman Empire before the establishment of Israel by the United Nations in 1947, 65 years ago.  They want that land back, although they never really possessed it as a nation, and that is why they launch missiles toward it. In their mind, Israel’s very existence on land they believe to be theirs is sufficient provocation for launching missiles at civilian targets and other acts of terror. 

Because Israel is not going to “go away” nor let itself be beaten in a war, this is by itself an unrealistically poor tactic.  Carried to its ultimate result, Israel’s unquestioned military superiority can destroy both Gaza and Hamas, with much loss of life. I doubt that this is the goal of Hamas nor the goal of Israel.  Hamas does not want to see its base of operations in Gaza destroyed.  Nor does Israel want to put itself in the position of carrying out such a lethal operation, recognizing the effect it might have on its supporters as well as endangering Israelis, their embassies and citizens throughout the world.  This danger might extend to Israel’s supporters as well.  That’s why I suspect that Israeli troops on the Gaza perimeter may really be no more than a show of force, announcing that "If we choose to, we can destroy you."  That is a potent weapon in itself.

The missile launching into Israel, then, may be a tactic in a broader Hamas strategy. Even though they would prefer that there be no Israel, Hamas’ real goal is to be the dominant Palestinian force in an ultimate two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian problem.  Israel will have its existing territory and the Palestinians will have theirs in Gaza and on the West Bank, as the United Nations resolution back in 1947 intended, but with changes resulting from the Arab nations’ abortive military attempts to eradicate Israel in 1967 and 1973, which cannot be erased.  Existing Israeli settlements in the West Bank will remain as carved out enclaves, to be traded for other Israeli territory to be included in the Palestinian state.  This is the position of Israel’s western allies, including the United States, and is acceptable to most Israelis, except those Orthodox who are naïve enough to prefer a one state solution.  Of course, such a one state solution would be immediately acceptable to the Palestinians since they would soon be a majority by virtue of their birthrate, and that will mark the end of the State of Israel.

If the ceasefire in Gaza continues, the question remains as to which Palestinians Israel would prefer to deal with in developing a two state solution.  The missile attacks and the resulting Israeli response, certainly anticipated sooner or later by Hamas, is a tactic in their strategy which they hope will put them in the Palestinian driver’s seat. The PLO’s Mahmoud Abbas, unlikely to resort to the terrorism that was once that group’s trademark, did not bring this issue to a head at this time.  The missiles of Hamas did, however, almost resulting in its Hamas’ own destruction and that of Gaza City by Israel.  But Hamas, presently labeled a terrorist group by the United States and Israel, is not yet an acceptable negotiating partner for Israel.  Abbas, meanwhile, is not in the spotlight and may be said to be on the sidelines at this point, causing more and more Palestinians to look toward Hamas to state their case. 


 

Mohammed Morsi and Mamoud Abbas 

Only time will tell if (1) Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, whose bankrupt nation receives significant financial aid from Israel’s greatest supporter, the United States, will be able to bring about changes in Hamas in view of his base in the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization which is a patron of Hamas.  Meanwhile, Hamas seems to be temporarily downplaying its aim of the destruction of Israel and is trying to play the role of a defender of Palestinian interests, albeit a more militant one that Mahmoud Abbas’ PLO.

If a two state solution is to be worked out, Israel cannot have a negotiating partner, and eventual neighbor, willing to lob missiles at it in order to make a point.  That is why the ceasefire may have to become a permanent fixture until that point is reached where Israel has someone with whom to negotiate. Whether it can or not is crucial to a solution to the problem.

Hamas is a terrorist organization.  But terrorist organizations have a way of morphing into more legitimate groups.  In Israel, the Irgun was a terrorist organization.  In Northern Ireland, the IRA was a terrorist organization.  Members of both of these groups ultimately became involved in more traditional political organizations. In the United States, the Ku Klux Klan was a terrorist organization but some of its principles were adopted by the Democratic Party locally in the post-Reconstruction South.  In the United States' colonial days, the Sons of Liberty was a terrorist organization, responsible for the Boston Tea Party, but its leader, Samuel Adams, went on to become one of the nation's founding fathers.  History shows that some terrorist groups can themselves develop into legitimate political entities. Also, sometimes their members become part of legitimate groups who adopt some of their ideas, minus the terrorism.  Sometimes they don't.


 
Terrorist attack on Taj Mahal Hotel in Mumbai

During a hoped-for extended ceasefire, perhaps there will be some change in the aims of Hamas, particularly since they are feeling the pressure of puritanical Muslim groups significantly more extreme than they are (also being felt by Morsi in Egypt), such as the Salafis.   As I have said, only time will tell.  Meanwhile, Israel remains alert, vigilant and prepared.  Both Hamas and Egypt know it.

(1) Egyptian President Morsi received his BS and MS in engineering in Egypt but earned his Ph.D at the University of Southern California in 1985.  He then taught for three years at the University of California at Northridge before returning to Egypt to assume an academic position. Incidentally, Cal State at Northridge has a total undergraduate and graduate student body of about 33,000 students of which approximately 18% are Jewish.

Jack Lippman


                                                              

                                          

What Four Hundred Cases of Scotch Will Buy

It was a steamy, hot, early August day in Tokyo. The war against the Americans, now in its fourth year, was going well according to what the government was telling the people. Although he occasionally experienced nagging doubts about the conflict’s outcome, particularly after the nearby fire bombings, who was he to question the Emperor?  Ultimately, all will turn out well, he believed. That was only one of the reasons Kimoto Nagaguchi felt good as he climbed the stairs to the second level where he opened the door and greeted his wife.  Bowing slightly, he opened the brown paper bag he was carrying and placed its contents, a paper plate containing three pieces of raw fish and a bit of rice before her.  She sampled it.

“Where did you get this sushi?  It’s delicious,” the short woman in the worn kimono asked.

Kimoto smiled and replied, “Don’t you worry where it came from, but just enjoy it. I have some good news for you.”

They had been eating rather well since Kimoto had been discharged from the Japanese Army.  Blinded in one eye and having lost his left arm in the Philippines, he was no longer of any military use to the Emperor’s armed forces.  Somehow though, after his release from the hospital, Kimoto still had been able to ship back to Japan four hundred cases of Johnny Walker Black Label Scotch Whisky, liberated by the Army from the warehouse in Manila which in earlier days had supplied all of the city’s luxury hotels with liquor.  As battalion supply officer, he had sufficient access to the trucks and cargo space on freighters returning to Japan to bring the scotch, in wooden crates marked as containing used shell casings, back with him.  And when someone looked too closely, a bottle was more than an adequate bribe to get the whisky through.  It was better than any currency in getting the best things to eat and wear for his family.  And several years later, he still had more than half of it left, hidden in an obscure military warehouse to which he still had access.

His wife knew all of this, of course, but still worried that Kimoto would be caught and it would all end.  She had repeatedly urged him to find a way to exchange the remaining whisky for a more permanent form of security.  And that was the good news that he had for her this evening.

“Niika,” he smiled.  “Your worrying will soon be over.  I will be leaving in a few days to arrange to turn the remaining whisky over to a gentleman in another city. He has the connections to make better use of it than I can.  And in exchange, he will be giving me the keys, and the title, to a small apartment building there. It is fully tenanted by government employees who never fail to pay their rent, and there is a magnificent apartment that will be ours to keep. It will give us a place to live and an income for the rest of our lives.  This is what you wanted, right?”

She smiled and kissed him.  “Yes, Yes.” 

A few mornings later, after an overnight train ride, Kimoto arrived at his destination, and checked his notebook.  Yes, this was the address, and this was the day they had agreed upon to meet for breakfast and to close the deal.  He looked at his watch. He was a few minutes early, but he enjoyed being outside taking in the morning air, which was much more refreshing here in Hiroshima than it was in Tokyo.

                                     

  
JL

  
                                                        


Most readers of this blog are alerted by Email every time a new posting appears.  If you wish to be added to that Email list, just let me know by contacting me at Riart1@aol.com.  

Also, be aware that www.Jackspotpourri.com is now available on your mobile devices in a modified, easy-to-read, format.

Jack Lippman

                                                                 

                                                            * * *   * * *   * * *

To view older postings on this blog, just click on the appropriate date in the “Blog Archive” off to the right, or scroll down until you see the “Older Postings” notation at the very bottom of this posting.  The “Search” box can also be used to find older postings.

To send this posting to a friend, or enemy for that matter, whom you think might be interested in it, just click on the envelope with the arrow on the "Comments" line directly below.